Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector is among the hardest challenges in transforming energy systems to zero emissions. Transport energy demands are driven by an interplay of social behavioral, technical factors, political decisions and economic conditions, motivating detailed tr...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X24003158 |
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| author | Niklas Wulff Danial Esmaeili Aliabadi Samuel Hasselwander Thomas Pregger Hans Christian Gils Stefan Kronshage Wolfgang Grimme Juri Horst Carsten Hoyer-Klick Patrick Jochem |
| author_facet | Niklas Wulff Danial Esmaeili Aliabadi Samuel Hasselwander Thomas Pregger Hans Christian Gils Stefan Kronshage Wolfgang Grimme Juri Horst Carsten Hoyer-Klick Patrick Jochem |
| author_sort | Niklas Wulff |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector is among the hardest challenges in transforming energy systems to zero emissions. Transport energy demands are driven by an interplay of social behavioral, technical factors, political decisions and economic conditions, motivating detailed transport demand modeling.In Germany, transport energy supply – increasingly from electricity – is expected to challenge the energy supply infrastructure. Recent studies assume large shares of imported clean energy carriers and proclaim global renewable fuel import potentials. Simultaneously, sustainable biofuels’ impacts on required electricity supply infrastructure is yet not well understood.We assess the impact of climate ambition, indirect electrification shares and biofuel availability on energy supply infrastructure in 8 demand scenarios. Coupling the European energy system model REMix with the biofuel allocation model BENOPTex, we calculate cost-minimal energy supply infrastructure for each scenario. This high detail of integrated transport sector and biofuel modeling is novel to energy system analysis.We find that incorporating user preferences in sales decisions clearly narrows the range of transport energy demand. As the German renewable energy potential is exhausted, higher clean fuel demand is covered by imports. Still, the use of these fuels drives the required power grid expansion, and especially electrolysis and fuel production capacities. Biofuel availability may significantly reduce e-fuel demand reducing cost-optimal hydrogen production capacity in the medium term and necessary grid expansion within Germany beyond 2030.The model outcome is limited by assumptions on costs and availability of import options. Future work should further address modal shift transport scenarios. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fa2b2df90c4e4e97bc2c94abe7e18f09 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj-art-fa2b2df90c4e4e97bc2c94abe7e18f092025-08-20T03:42:38ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2025-03-015810160610.1016/j.esr.2024.101606Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuelsNiklas Wulff0Danial Esmaeili Aliabadi1Samuel Hasselwander2Thomas Pregger3Hans Christian Gils4Stefan Kronshage5Wolfgang Grimme6Juri Horst7Carsten Hoyer-Klick8Patrick Jochem9German Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestr. 4, 70563 Stuttgart, Germany; Corresponding author.Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Permoserstraße 15, 04318, Leipzig, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Vehicle Concepts, Wankelstr. 5, 70563 Stuttgart, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestr. 4, 70563 Stuttgart, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestr. 4, 70563 Stuttgart, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestr. 4, 70563 Stuttgart, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Air Transport, Linder Höhe, 51147 Köln, GermanyIZES gGmbH, Altenkesseler Straße 17, Geb. A1, 66115 Saarbrücken, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestr. 4, 70563 Stuttgart, GermanyGerman Aerospace Center (DLR), Institute of Networked Energy Systems, Curiestr. 4, 70563 Stuttgart, GermanyReducing greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector is among the hardest challenges in transforming energy systems to zero emissions. Transport energy demands are driven by an interplay of social behavioral, technical factors, political decisions and economic conditions, motivating detailed transport demand modeling.In Germany, transport energy supply – increasingly from electricity – is expected to challenge the energy supply infrastructure. Recent studies assume large shares of imported clean energy carriers and proclaim global renewable fuel import potentials. Simultaneously, sustainable biofuels’ impacts on required electricity supply infrastructure is yet not well understood.We assess the impact of climate ambition, indirect electrification shares and biofuel availability on energy supply infrastructure in 8 demand scenarios. Coupling the European energy system model REMix with the biofuel allocation model BENOPTex, we calculate cost-minimal energy supply infrastructure for each scenario. This high detail of integrated transport sector and biofuel modeling is novel to energy system analysis.We find that incorporating user preferences in sales decisions clearly narrows the range of transport energy demand. As the German renewable energy potential is exhausted, higher clean fuel demand is covered by imports. Still, the use of these fuels drives the required power grid expansion, and especially electrolysis and fuel production capacities. Biofuel availability may significantly reduce e-fuel demand reducing cost-optimal hydrogen production capacity in the medium term and necessary grid expansion within Germany beyond 2030.The model outcome is limited by assumptions on costs and availability of import options. Future work should further address modal shift transport scenarios.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X24003158Energy system analysisSector-couplingTransport sectorSynthetic fuelsBiofuelsFuel imports |
| spellingShingle | Niklas Wulff Danial Esmaeili Aliabadi Samuel Hasselwander Thomas Pregger Hans Christian Gils Stefan Kronshage Wolfgang Grimme Juri Horst Carsten Hoyer-Klick Patrick Jochem Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels Energy Strategy Reviews Energy system analysis Sector-coupling Transport sector Synthetic fuels Biofuels Fuel imports |
| title | Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels |
| title_full | Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels |
| title_fullStr | Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels |
| title_short | Energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels |
| title_sort | energy system implications of demand scenarios and supply strategies for renewable transportation fuels |
| topic | Energy system analysis Sector-coupling Transport sector Synthetic fuels Biofuels Fuel imports |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X24003158 |
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