Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model
Abstract Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and Taxus cuspidata as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of T. cuspidata is essential for decision‐makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-08-01
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| Series: | Ecosphere |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4965 |
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| _version_ | 1849331374492745728 |
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| author | Baoliang Chang Chen Huang Bingming Chen Ziwen Wang Xingyuan He Wei Chen Yanqing Huang Yue Zhang Shuai Yu |
| author_facet | Baoliang Chang Chen Huang Bingming Chen Ziwen Wang Xingyuan He Wei Chen Yanqing Huang Yue Zhang Shuai Yu |
| author_sort | Baoliang Chang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and Taxus cuspidata as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of T. cuspidata is essential for decision‐makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly implement conservation measures. In this study, a combined model was employed to predict potentially suitable habitats for T. cuspidata based on extant data of T. cuspidata distributions in northeastern China. Our findings suggest that mean diurnal range (bio2) and isothermality (bio3) were identified as dominant factors influencing T. cuspidata distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas increased only in the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s, declining in all other scenarios. In all climate scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitats ultimately shows a trend in northward movement. Decreases in suitable habitat predominantly occurred in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, and Tonghua city. Overall, this study highlights a projected habitat reduction due to climate change. Recommendations entail the strategic establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of initiatives aimed at population replenishment. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f5a32e6b0f2b4f06bc03ed24a25a1de4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2150-8925 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-08-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-f5a32e6b0f2b4f06bc03ed24a25a1de42025-08-20T03:46:37ZengWileyEcosphere2150-89252024-08-01158n/an/a10.1002/ecs2.4965Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble modelBaoliang Chang0Chen Huang1Bingming Chen2Ziwen Wang3Xingyuan He4Wei Chen5Yanqing Huang6Yue Zhang7Shuai Yu8CAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang ChinaCollege of Horticulture, Key Laboratory of Landscape Agriculture, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, East China Key Laboratory of Flower Biology, Key Laboratory of Flower Biology and Germplasm Creation, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs Nanjing Agricultural University, State Forestry and Grassland Administration Nanjing ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang ChinaCAS Key Laboratory of Forest Ecology and Silviculture Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences Shenyang ChinaAbstract Climate change is poised to exert a significant impact on species distribution in the future, and Taxus cuspidata as an endangered species is no exception. Predicting the potential distribution of T. cuspidata is essential for decision‐makers to develop conservation policies and explicitly implement conservation measures. In this study, a combined model was employed to predict potentially suitable habitats for T. cuspidata based on extant data of T. cuspidata distributions in northeastern China. Our findings suggest that mean diurnal range (bio2) and isothermality (bio3) were identified as dominant factors influencing T. cuspidata distribution. Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitat areas increased only in the SSP126 scenario in the 2070s, declining in all other scenarios. In all climate scenarios, the centroid of suitable habitats ultimately shows a trend in northward movement. Decreases in suitable habitat predominantly occurred in Yanbian Korean Autonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, and Tonghua city. Overall, this study highlights a projected habitat reduction due to climate change. Recommendations entail the strategic establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of initiatives aimed at population replenishment.https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4965Biomod2endangered plantsnature reservespopulation statusspecies distribution modelTaxus cuspidata |
| spellingShingle | Baoliang Chang Chen Huang Bingming Chen Ziwen Wang Xingyuan He Wei Chen Yanqing Huang Yue Zhang Shuai Yu Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model Ecosphere Biomod2 endangered plants nature reserves population status species distribution model Taxus cuspidata |
| title | Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model |
| title_full | Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model |
| title_fullStr | Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model |
| title_short | Predicting the potential distribution of Taxus cuspidata in northeastern China based on the ensemble model |
| title_sort | predicting the potential distribution of taxus cuspidata in northeastern china based on the ensemble model |
| topic | Biomod2 endangered plants nature reserves population status species distribution model Taxus cuspidata |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.4965 |
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