Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO2
Abstract Missouri River streamflow increased substantially during the 20th century, with multiple large floods occurring since 1990. Using land surface models and water budget simulations, we examined the extent to which increased flow was driven by natural climate variability, anthropogenic climate...
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Wiley
2025-04-01
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| Series: | AGU Advances |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001432 |
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| author | Matthew P. Dannenberg Gregory J. McCabe Erika K. Wise Miriam R. Johnston Deborah N. Huntzinger A. Park Williams |
| author_facet | Matthew P. Dannenberg Gregory J. McCabe Erika K. Wise Miriam R. Johnston Deborah N. Huntzinger A. Park Williams |
| author_sort | Matthew P. Dannenberg |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Missouri River streamflow increased substantially during the 20th century, with multiple large floods occurring since 1990. Using land surface models and water budget simulations, we examined the extent to which increased flow was driven by natural climate variability, anthropogenic climate trends, land‐use and land‐cover change (LULCC), and ecological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2. Natural climate variability (arising largely from coupled ocean‐atmosphere circulation systems in both the Pacific and North Atlantic) accounted for ∼765 m3 s−1 of the ∼900 m3 s−1 increase in flow since mid‐century, while anthropogenic climate trends negatively forced flow by increasing evapotranspiration more than precipitation. LULCC and elevated CO2 further increased simulated mean streamflow by ∼550 and ∼70 m3 s−1, respectively, relative to pre‐Industrial conditions and ∼100 and ∼65 m3 s−1 relative to mid‐20th century conditions. The LULCC effect was especially large in wet years, implying that current land cover is ill‐suited for buffering against extreme precipitation, likely in large part due to replacement of forest by cropland in the lower basin. Because increases in Missouri River flow over the past century were driven mostly by a recent (and likely transient) pluvial, our results suggest that flow in the basin could revert to a drier mean state when that pluvial ends, likely made worse by increased evaporative demand from anthropogenic warming. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ee2585b10d3d47ed9decf55b78876c6d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2576-604X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
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| spelling | doaj-art-ee2585b10d3d47ed9decf55b78876c6d2025-08-20T03:49:03ZengWileyAGU Advances2576-604X2025-04-0162n/an/a10.1029/2024AV001432Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO2Matthew P. Dannenberg0Gregory J. McCabe1Erika K. Wise2Miriam R. Johnston3Deborah N. Huntzinger4A. Park Williams5Department of Geographical and Sustainability Sciences University of Iowa Iowa City IA USAHydroclimate Consulting LLC Littleton CO USADepartment of Geography and Environment University of North Carolina Chapel Hill NC USADepartment of Geographical and Sustainability Sciences University of Iowa Iowa City IA USASchool of Earth and Sustainability Northern Arizona University Flagstaff AZ USADepartment of Geography University of California Los Angeles CA USAAbstract Missouri River streamflow increased substantially during the 20th century, with multiple large floods occurring since 1990. Using land surface models and water budget simulations, we examined the extent to which increased flow was driven by natural climate variability, anthropogenic climate trends, land‐use and land‐cover change (LULCC), and ecological effects of elevated atmospheric CO2. Natural climate variability (arising largely from coupled ocean‐atmosphere circulation systems in both the Pacific and North Atlantic) accounted for ∼765 m3 s−1 of the ∼900 m3 s−1 increase in flow since mid‐century, while anthropogenic climate trends negatively forced flow by increasing evapotranspiration more than precipitation. LULCC and elevated CO2 further increased simulated mean streamflow by ∼550 and ∼70 m3 s−1, respectively, relative to pre‐Industrial conditions and ∼100 and ∼65 m3 s−1 relative to mid‐20th century conditions. The LULCC effect was especially large in wet years, implying that current land cover is ill‐suited for buffering against extreme precipitation, likely in large part due to replacement of forest by cropland in the lower basin. Because increases in Missouri River flow over the past century were driven mostly by a recent (and likely transient) pluvial, our results suggest that flow in the basin could revert to a drier mean state when that pluvial ends, likely made worse by increased evaporative demand from anthropogenic warming.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001432climate changeCO2 fertilizationland use and land cover change (LULCC)hydrologyfloods |
| spellingShingle | Matthew P. Dannenberg Gregory J. McCabe Erika K. Wise Miriam R. Johnston Deborah N. Huntzinger A. Park Williams Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO2 AGU Advances climate change CO2 fertilization land use and land cover change (LULCC) hydrology floods |
| title | Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO2 |
| title_full | Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO2 |
| title_fullStr | Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO2 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO2 |
| title_short | Recent Increases in Missouri River Streamflow Driven by Combined Effects of Climate Variability, Land‐Use Change, and Elevated CO2 |
| title_sort | recent increases in missouri river streamflow driven by combined effects of climate variability land use change and elevated co2 |
| topic | climate change CO2 fertilization land use and land cover change (LULCC) hydrology floods |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024AV001432 |
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