Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance
We used a spatially explicit agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission combined with spatially fine-grained COVID-19 observation data from Public Health Scotland to investigate the initial rise of the Omicron (BA.1) variant of concern. We evaluated plausible scenarios for transmission rate advant...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Epidemics |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000616 |
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| author | Christopher J. Banks Ewan Colman Anthony J. Wood Thomas Doherty Rowland R. Kao |
| author_facet | Christopher J. Banks Ewan Colman Anthony J. Wood Thomas Doherty Rowland R. Kao |
| author_sort | Christopher J. Banks |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We used a spatially explicit agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission combined with spatially fine-grained COVID-19 observation data from Public Health Scotland to investigate the initial rise of the Omicron (BA.1) variant of concern. We evaluated plausible scenarios for transmission rate advantage and vaccine immune escape relative to the Delta variant based on the data that would have been available at that time. We also explored possible outcomes of different levels of imposed non-pharmaceutical intervention. The initial results of these scenarios were used to inform the Scottish Government in the early outbreak stages of the Omicron variant.Using the model with parameters fit over the Delta variant epidemic, some initial assumptions about Omicron transmission rate advantage and vaccine escape, and a simple growth rate fitting procedure, we were able to capture the initial outbreak dynamics for Omicron. We found that the modelled dynamics hold up to retrospective scrutiny. The modelled imposition of extra non-pharmaceutical interventions planned by the Scottish Government at the time would likely have little effect in light of the transmission rate advantage held by the Omicron variant and the fact that the planned interventions would have occurred too late in the outbreak’s trajectory. Finally, we found that any assumptions made about the projected distribution of vaccines in the model population had little bearing on the outcome, in terms of outbreak size and timing. Instead, it was the landscape of prior immunity that was most important. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-da14480d5a274fe48f204b3412bc84fc |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1755-4365 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Epidemics |
| spelling | doaj-art-da14480d5a274fe48f204b3412bc84fc2024-12-16T05:35:49ZengElsevierEpidemics1755-43652024-12-0149100800Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillanceChristopher J. Banks0Ewan Colman1Anthony J. Wood2Thomas Doherty3Rowland R. Kao4Roslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, United KingdomRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, United KingdomRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, United KingdomDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Strathclyde, United KingdomRoslin Institute, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Corresponding author at: Royal (Dick) School of Veterinary Studies, University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.We used a spatially explicit agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission combined with spatially fine-grained COVID-19 observation data from Public Health Scotland to investigate the initial rise of the Omicron (BA.1) variant of concern. We evaluated plausible scenarios for transmission rate advantage and vaccine immune escape relative to the Delta variant based on the data that would have been available at that time. We also explored possible outcomes of different levels of imposed non-pharmaceutical intervention. The initial results of these scenarios were used to inform the Scottish Government in the early outbreak stages of the Omicron variant.Using the model with parameters fit over the Delta variant epidemic, some initial assumptions about Omicron transmission rate advantage and vaccine escape, and a simple growth rate fitting procedure, we were able to capture the initial outbreak dynamics for Omicron. We found that the modelled dynamics hold up to retrospective scrutiny. The modelled imposition of extra non-pharmaceutical interventions planned by the Scottish Government at the time would likely have little effect in light of the transmission rate advantage held by the Omicron variant and the fact that the planned interventions would have occurred too late in the outbreak’s trajectory. Finally, we found that any assumptions made about the projected distribution of vaccines in the model population had little bearing on the outcome, in terms of outbreak size and timing. Instead, it was the landscape of prior immunity that was most important.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000616SARS-CoV-2 dynamicsAgent-based simulationOutbreak analysisVariant dynamics |
| spellingShingle | Christopher J. Banks Ewan Colman Anthony J. Wood Thomas Doherty Rowland R. Kao Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance Epidemics SARS-CoV-2 dynamics Agent-based simulation Outbreak analysis Variant dynamics |
| title | Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance |
| title_full | Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance |
| title_fullStr | Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance |
| title_short | Modelling plausible scenarios for the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 variant from early-stage surveillance |
| title_sort | modelling plausible scenarios for the omicron sars cov 2 variant from early stage surveillance |
| topic | SARS-CoV-2 dynamics Agent-based simulation Outbreak analysis Variant dynamics |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1755436524000616 |
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