Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 Simulations
Abstract Obvious biases in simulating tropical cyclone (TC) genesis of the current climate models hamper our understanding of TC changes. In this study, we found a delay of the seasonal cycle of TC genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project P...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-06-01
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| Series: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109150 |
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| author | Yi Peng Yi‐Peng Guo |
| author_facet | Yi Peng Yi‐Peng Guo |
| author_sort | Yi Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Obvious biases in simulating tropical cyclone (TC) genesis of the current climate models hamper our understanding of TC changes. In this study, we found a delay of the seasonal cycle of TC genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. During the active TC season, the simulated south‐warming and north‐cooling surface temperature bias amplifies the meridional gradient and excites thermal winds. This weakens the western North Pacific Subtropical High and easterly monsoon trough, which further reduces TC genesis frequency over the western WNP in summer. But in autumn, positive TC genesis biases were only observed in coupled models over the eastern WNP. Both seasons contribute to the delayed seasonal cycle of TC frequency in models. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate simulation of surface temperature by climate models to TC simulations and aid in future model improvements. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-d0db4be446be4cd8b35db8e72eb8a1a6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 0094-8276 1944-8007 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-06-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geophysical Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj-art-d0db4be446be4cd8b35db8e72eb8a1a62025-08-20T03:49:37ZengWileyGeophysical Research Letters0094-82761944-80072024-06-015112n/an/a10.1029/2024GL109150Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 SimulationsYi Peng0Yi‐Peng Guo1Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing ChinaKey Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University Nanjing ChinaAbstract Obvious biases in simulating tropical cyclone (TC) genesis of the current climate models hamper our understanding of TC changes. In this study, we found a delay of the seasonal cycle of TC genesis frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) in most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models. During the active TC season, the simulated south‐warming and north‐cooling surface temperature bias amplifies the meridional gradient and excites thermal winds. This weakens the western North Pacific Subtropical High and easterly monsoon trough, which further reduces TC genesis frequency over the western WNP in summer. But in autumn, positive TC genesis biases were only observed in coupled models over the eastern WNP. Both seasons contribute to the delayed seasonal cycle of TC frequency in models. Our findings highlight the importance of accurate simulation of surface temperature by climate models to TC simulations and aid in future model improvements.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109150tropical cycloneCMIP6genesis |
| spellingShingle | Yi Peng Yi‐Peng Guo Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 Simulations Geophysical Research Letters tropical cyclone CMIP6 genesis |
| title | Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 Simulations |
| title_full | Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 Simulations |
| title_fullStr | Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 Simulations |
| title_full_unstemmed | Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 Simulations |
| title_short | Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 Simulations |
| title_sort | seasonal cycle delay of the western north pacific tropical cyclone genesis frequency in cmip6 simulations |
| topic | tropical cyclone CMIP6 genesis |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109150 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT yipeng seasonalcycledelayofthewesternnorthpacifictropicalcyclonegenesisfrequencyincmip6simulations AT yipengguo seasonalcycledelayofthewesternnorthpacifictropicalcyclonegenesisfrequencyincmip6simulations |