Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements
Summary: Cost reductions are essential for accelerating clean technology deployment. Because multiple factors influence costs, traditional one-factor learning models, solely relying on cumulative installed capacity as an explanatory variable, may oversimplify cost dynamics. In this study, we disenta...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | iScience |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224028712 |
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| author | Yoga W. Pratama Matthew J. Gidden Jenna Greene Andrew Zaiser Gregory Nemet Keywan Riahi |
| author_facet | Yoga W. Pratama Matthew J. Gidden Jenna Greene Andrew Zaiser Gregory Nemet Keywan Riahi |
| author_sort | Yoga W. Pratama |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Summary: Cost reductions are essential for accelerating clean technology deployment. Because multiple factors influence costs, traditional one-factor learning models, solely relying on cumulative installed capacity as an explanatory variable, may oversimplify cost dynamics. In this study, we disentangle learning and economies of scale effects at unit and project levels and introduce a knowledge gap concept to quantify rapid technological change’s impact on costs. Our results show that a substantial proportion of cost declines in several technologies is attributable to economies of scale rather than learning processes. Thus, relying on one-factor learning may underestimate cost declines during upscaling periods for technologies with strong economies of scale effects and overestimate reductions for those approaching maximum size. Notably, the knowledge gap concept can endogenously capture how rapidly technology sizes can evolve through learning. These insights can improve decision-making and highlight the benefits of separating learning and economies of scale effects to estimate technology costs. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-ccd57788815040d6954c1b4cc67bc8a3 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2589-0042 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | iScience |
| spelling | doaj-art-ccd57788815040d6954c1b4cc67bc8a32025-01-08T04:53:17ZengElsevieriScience2589-00422025-01-01281111644Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvementsYoga W. Pratama0Matthew J. Gidden1Jenna Greene2Andrew Zaiser3Gregory Nemet4Keywan Riahi5International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, Austria; Corresponding authorInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, AustriaNelson Institute Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment, University of Wisconsin – Madison, Madison, WI, USALa Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin – Madison, Madison, WI, USALa Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin – Madison, Madison, WI, USAInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Lower Austria, AustriaSummary: Cost reductions are essential for accelerating clean technology deployment. Because multiple factors influence costs, traditional one-factor learning models, solely relying on cumulative installed capacity as an explanatory variable, may oversimplify cost dynamics. In this study, we disentangle learning and economies of scale effects at unit and project levels and introduce a knowledge gap concept to quantify rapid technological change’s impact on costs. Our results show that a substantial proportion of cost declines in several technologies is attributable to economies of scale rather than learning processes. Thus, relying on one-factor learning may underestimate cost declines during upscaling periods for technologies with strong economies of scale effects and overestimate reductions for those approaching maximum size. Notably, the knowledge gap concept can endogenously capture how rapidly technology sizes can evolve through learning. These insights can improve decision-making and highlight the benefits of separating learning and economies of scale effects to estimate technology costs.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224028712Applied sciencesEngineeringNatural sciences |
| spellingShingle | Yoga W. Pratama Matthew J. Gidden Jenna Greene Andrew Zaiser Gregory Nemet Keywan Riahi Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements iScience Applied sciences Engineering Natural sciences |
| title | Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements |
| title_full | Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements |
| title_fullStr | Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements |
| title_full_unstemmed | Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements |
| title_short | Learning, economies of scale, and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements |
| title_sort | learning economies of scale and knowledge gap effects on power generation technology cost improvements |
| topic | Applied sciences Engineering Natural sciences |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589004224028712 |
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