Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Potential Distribution Prediction of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> Invasion in Bohai Bay Based on Sentinel Time-Series Data and MaxEnt Modeling
The northward expansion of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> (<i>S. alterniflora</i>) poses a profound ecological threat to coastal ecosystems and biodiversity along China’s coastline. This invasive species exhibits strong adaptability to colder climates, facilitating its potentia...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Remote Sensing |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2072-4292/17/6/975 |
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| Summary: | The northward expansion of <i>Spartina alterniflora</i> (<i>S. alterniflora</i>) poses a profound ecological threat to coastal ecosystems and biodiversity along China’s coastline. This invasive species exhibits strong adaptability to colder climates, facilitating its potential spread into northern regions and underscoring the urgent need for a nuanced understanding of its spatial distribution and invasion risks to inform evidence-based ecosystem management strategies. This study employed multi-temporal Sentinel-1/2 imagery (2016–2022) to map and predict the spread of <i>S. alterniflora</i> in Bohai Bay. An object-based random forest classification achieved an overall accuracy above 92% (κ = 0.978). Over the six-year period, the <i>S. alterniflora</i> distribution decreased from 46.60 km<sup>2</sup> in 2016 to 12.56 km<sup>2</sup> in 2022, reflecting an annual reduction of approximately 5.67 km<sup>2</sup>. This decline primarily resulted from targeted eradication efforts, including physical removal, chemical treatments, and biological competition strategies. Despite this local reduction, MaxEnt modeling suggests that climate trends and habitat suitability continue to support potential northward expansion, particularly in high-risk areas such as the Binhai New District, the Shandong Yellow River Delta, and the Laizhou Bay tributary estuary. Key environmental drivers of <i>S. alterniflora</i> distribution include the maximum temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, isothermality, sea surface temperature, mean temperature of the warmest quarter, and soil type. High-risk invasion zones, covering about 95.65 km<sup>2</sup>. These findings illuminate the spatial dynamics of <i>S. alterniflora</i> and offer scientific guidance for evidence-based restoration and management strategies, ensuring the protection of coastal ecosystems and fostering sustainable development. |
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| ISSN: | 2072-4292 |