Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China
Background Despite extensive knowledge of tuberculosis (TB) and its control, there remains a significant gap in understanding the comprehensive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB incidence patterns. This study aims to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the pattern of pulmonary tuberculosis in Chin...
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PeerJ Inc.
2024-12-01
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| author | Jiarui Zhang Zhong Sun Qi Deng Yidan Yu Xingyue Dian Juan Luo Thilakavathy Karuppiah Narcisse Joseph Guozhong He |
| author_facet | Jiarui Zhang Zhong Sun Qi Deng Yidan Yu Xingyue Dian Juan Luo Thilakavathy Karuppiah Narcisse Joseph Guozhong He |
| author_sort | Jiarui Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background Despite extensive knowledge of tuberculosis (TB) and its control, there remains a significant gap in understanding the comprehensive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB incidence patterns. This study aims to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the pattern of pulmonary tuberculosis in China and examine the application of time series models in the analysis of these patterns, providing valuable insights for TB prevention and control. Methods We used pre-COVID-19 pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) data (2007–2018) to fit SARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM models, assessing their ability to predict PTB incidence trends. These models were then applied to compare the predicted PTB incidence patterns with actual reported cases during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2023), using deviations between predicted and actual values to reflect the impact of COVID-19 countermeasures on PTB incidence. Results Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, PTB incidence in China exhibited a steady decline with strong seasonal fluctuations, characterized by two annual peaks—one in March and another in December. These seasonal trends persisted until 2019. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PTB cases, with actual reported cases falling below the predicted values. The disruption in PTB incidence appears to be temporary, as 2023 data indicate a gradual return to pre-pandemic trends, though the incidence rate remains slightly lower than pre-COVID levels. Additionally, we compared the fitting and forecasting performance of the SARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM models using RMSE (root mean squared error), MAE (mean absolute error), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) indexes prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the Prophet model had the lowest values for all three indexes, demonstrating the best fitting and prediction performance. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic has had a temporary but significant impact on PTB incidence in China, leading to a reduction in reported cases during the pandemic. However, as pandemic control measures relax and the healthcare system stabilizes, PTB incidence patterns are expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels. The Prophet model demonstrated the best predictive performance and proves to be a valuable tool for analyzing PTB trends and guiding public health planning in the post-pandemic era. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c2740de29b6046ca9f614921eb5875c0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2167-8359 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-c2740de29b6046ca9f614921eb5875c02024-12-15T15:05:17ZengPeerJ Inc.PeerJ2167-83592024-12-0112e1857310.7717/peerj.18573Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in ChinaJiarui Zhang0Zhong Sun1Qi Deng2Yidan Yu3Xingyue Dian4Juan Luo5Thilakavathy Karuppiah6Narcisse Joseph7Guozhong He8School of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaDepartment of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor, MalaysiaSchool of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaSchool of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaDepartment of Laboratory Medicine, General Hospital of Armed Police Forces of Yunnan Province, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaDepartment of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor, MalaysiaDepartment of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine & Health Sciences, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Serdang, Selangor, MalaysiaSchool of Public Health, Kunming Medical University, Kunming, Yunnan, ChinaBackground Despite extensive knowledge of tuberculosis (TB) and its control, there remains a significant gap in understanding the comprehensive impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on TB incidence patterns. This study aims to explore the impact of COVID-19 on the pattern of pulmonary tuberculosis in China and examine the application of time series models in the analysis of these patterns, providing valuable insights for TB prevention and control. Methods We used pre-COVID-19 pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) data (2007–2018) to fit SARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM models, assessing their ability to predict PTB incidence trends. These models were then applied to compare the predicted PTB incidence patterns with actual reported cases during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2023), using deviations between predicted and actual values to reflect the impact of COVID-19 countermeasures on PTB incidence. Results Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, PTB incidence in China exhibited a steady decline with strong seasonal fluctuations, characterized by two annual peaks—one in March and another in December. These seasonal trends persisted until 2019. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant reduction in PTB cases, with actual reported cases falling below the predicted values. The disruption in PTB incidence appears to be temporary, as 2023 data indicate a gradual return to pre-pandemic trends, though the incidence rate remains slightly lower than pre-COVID levels. Additionally, we compared the fitting and forecasting performance of the SARIMA, Prophet, and LSTM models using RMSE (root mean squared error), MAE (mean absolute error), and MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) indexes prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. We found that the Prophet model had the lowest values for all three indexes, demonstrating the best fitting and prediction performance. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic has had a temporary but significant impact on PTB incidence in China, leading to a reduction in reported cases during the pandemic. However, as pandemic control measures relax and the healthcare system stabilizes, PTB incidence patterns are expected to return to pre-COVID-19 levels. The Prophet model demonstrated the best predictive performance and proves to be a valuable tool for analyzing PTB trends and guiding public health planning in the post-pandemic era.https://peerj.com/articles/18573.pdfTuberculosisCOVID-19Time series analysisIncidence patternsChinaSARIMA model |
| spellingShingle | Jiarui Zhang Zhong Sun Qi Deng Yidan Yu Xingyue Dian Juan Luo Thilakavathy Karuppiah Narcisse Joseph Guozhong He Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China PeerJ Tuberculosis COVID-19 Time series analysis Incidence patterns China SARIMA model |
| title | Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China |
| title_full | Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China |
| title_fullStr | Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China |
| title_short | Temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during COVID-19: a time series analysis in China |
| title_sort | temporal disruption in tuberculosis incidence patterns during covid 19 a time series analysis in china |
| topic | Tuberculosis COVID-19 Time series analysis Incidence patterns China SARIMA model |
| url | https://peerj.com/articles/18573.pdf |
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