Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector
The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implicatio...
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Energy |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ada15d |
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| author | Stuart Cohen Raquel Valdez Vincent Tidwell Saroj Khanal Thushara Gunda |
| author_facet | Stuart Cohen Raquel Valdez Vincent Tidwell Saroj Khanal Thushara Gunda |
| author_sort | Stuart Cohen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-c19553fb238043758cb5f21274cd72b0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2753-3751 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
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| series | Environmental Research: Energy |
| spelling | doaj-art-c19553fb238043758cb5f21274cd72b02025-01-09T09:04:32ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Energy2753-37512025-01-012101500210.1088/2753-3751/ada15dDecarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sectorStuart Cohen0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8389-6516Raquel Valdez1https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4840-0847Vincent Tidwell2https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4954-897XSaroj Khanal3https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0119-3188Thushara Gunda4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1945-4064National Renewable Energy Laboratory , Golden, CO, United States of AmericaSandia National Laboratories , Albuquerque, NM, United States of AmericaPacific Northwest National Laboratory , Richland, WA, United States of AmericaJohns Hopkins University , Baltimore, MD, United States of AmericaSandia National Laboratories , Albuquerque, NM, United States of AmericaThe power sector is currently undergoing significant changes, driven by a combination of factors, including decarbonization and technology innovation. This study aims to assess implications of these drivers on U.S. power sector technology futures and the associated water and environmental implications for cooling thermoelectric power plants. Specifically, we evaluate four decarbonization scenarios for the contiguous United States that vary in assumptions concerning demand growth and technology costs, with technology costs driving alternative outcomes that prioritize either technologies that require low amounts of water (such as wind, solar, and battery) or high amounts of water (such as nuclear and carbon capture and storage). These scenarios are executed in a power sector capacity expansion model and compared to two reference scenarios that assume status quo with policy and cost drivers. Our analysis indicates that future U.S. thermoelectric water withdrawals could decrease by 25%–60%, but water consumption could more than triple in some scenarios. These changes are driven by a combination of retirement of some power facilities, shifts in cooling technologies, and new technology deployment. The water use patterns vary across the United States, with the eastern regions demonstrating a lot more variability in water consumption across scenarios than western regions. However, local concerns can influence these possible investments, since increased water consumption can exacerbate water scarcity, leading to conflicts among competing users and affecting regional social, environmental, and economic dynamics. Future work should consider possible costs associated with alternate water sources, as well as improve the representation of water constraints within simulations. Inclusion of extreme events and alternate modeling platforms (e.g. production cost modeling and resource adequacy) may also be warranted to further stress test the robustness of these possible technology futures. Such assessments will be critical for ensuring decarbonization and other infrastructure-oriented investments lead to a reliable and resilient power grid.https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ada15dthermoelectricwater consumptionwater withdrawaldecarbonizationcapacity expansion modelinggrid scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Stuart Cohen Raquel Valdez Vincent Tidwell Saroj Khanal Thushara Gunda Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector Environmental Research: Energy thermoelectric water consumption water withdrawal decarbonization capacity expansion modeling grid scenarios |
| title | Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector |
| title_full | Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector |
| title_fullStr | Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector |
| title_short | Decarbonization and technology cost drivers: considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector |
| title_sort | decarbonization and technology cost drivers considerations for potential future thermoelectric water use in the power sector |
| topic | thermoelectric water consumption water withdrawal decarbonization capacity expansion modeling grid scenarios |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2753-3751/ada15d |
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