The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectations
The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is critical to achieving sustainable transportation, yet the role of energy prices in shaping consumer decisions remains underexplored, particularly in terms of their relative effects. This study provides a methodological and empirical contribution to un...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-06-01
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| Series: | Sustainable Futures |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188825000073 |
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| author | Xiaolei Zhao Xuemei Li Anqi Wang Jianjun Fang |
| author_facet | Xiaolei Zhao Xuemei Li Anqi Wang Jianjun Fang |
| author_sort | Xiaolei Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is critical to achieving sustainable transportation, yet the role of energy prices in shaping consumer decisions remains underexplored, particularly in terms of their relative effects. This study provides a methodological and empirical contribution to understanding the role of energy prices in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, a critical factor in advancing sustainable transportation. It employs a discrete choice model integrated with a regression discontinuity design to analyse the differential impacts of gasoline and electricity prices on EV adoption across 50 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020. Methodologically, this approach allows for precise estimation of the causal effects of energy prices while controlling for potential confounding factors. Empirically, the study quantifies the relative influence of gasoline prices, which are found to have a significantly larger impact—approximately 3.5 to 6 times greater than electricity prices—on consumer adoption behaviour. Furthermore, it introduces an innovative framework to address consumer misperceptions of future electricity costs, estimating that up to 37 % of optimal EV subsidies are allocated to correcting these misjudgements. These findings offer novel insights for shaping more effective and sustainable transportation policies, bridging the gap between economic theory and real-world consumer behaviour. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-b4b37fb7699d4eae80c31d374a5b95d9 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-1888 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-06-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Sustainable Futures |
| spelling | doaj-art-b4b37fb7699d4eae80c31d374a5b95d92025-01-15T04:11:57ZengElsevierSustainable Futures2666-18882025-06-019100437The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectationsXiaolei Zhao0Xuemei Li1Anqi Wang2Jianjun Fang3School of Economics and management, Beijing Jiaotong University, 100044, Beijing, China; Corresponding author at: Beijing Jiaotong University.School of Economics and Business Admininstration, Chongqing University, 400044, Chongqing, ChinaDepartment of Mathematics, The University of Manchester, Manchester, M13 9PL, United KingdomSchool of Economics and management, Beijing Jiaotong University, 100044, Beijing, ChinaThe rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) is critical to achieving sustainable transportation, yet the role of energy prices in shaping consumer decisions remains underexplored, particularly in terms of their relative effects. This study provides a methodological and empirical contribution to understanding the role of energy prices in electric vehicle (EV) adoption, a critical factor in advancing sustainable transportation. It employs a discrete choice model integrated with a regression discontinuity design to analyse the differential impacts of gasoline and electricity prices on EV adoption across 50 Chinese cities from 2010 to 2020. Methodologically, this approach allows for precise estimation of the causal effects of energy prices while controlling for potential confounding factors. Empirically, the study quantifies the relative influence of gasoline prices, which are found to have a significantly larger impact—approximately 3.5 to 6 times greater than electricity prices—on consumer adoption behaviour. Furthermore, it introduces an innovative framework to address consumer misperceptions of future electricity costs, estimating that up to 37 % of optimal EV subsidies are allocated to correcting these misjudgements. These findings offer novel insights for shaping more effective and sustainable transportation policies, bridging the gap between economic theory and real-world consumer behaviour.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188825000073Energy pricesElectric vehicleDiscrete choice modelRegression discontinuity design |
| spellingShingle | Xiaolei Zhao Xuemei Li Anqi Wang Jianjun Fang The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectations Sustainable Futures Energy prices Electric vehicle Discrete choice model Regression discontinuity design |
| title | The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectations |
| title_full | The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectations |
| title_fullStr | The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectations |
| title_full_unstemmed | The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectations |
| title_short | The impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption: From a perspective of consumer expectations |
| title_sort | impact of energy prices on electric vehicle adoption from a perspective of consumer expectations |
| topic | Energy prices Electric vehicle Discrete choice model Regression discontinuity design |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666188825000073 |
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