Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions?
Large volcanic eruptions, such as the prehistoric Yellowstone eruption, induce abrupt global cooling—by some estimates at a rate of ~1 °C/year, lasting for more than a decade. An abrupt global cooling of several °C—even if only lasting a few years—would present immediate, drastic stress on biodivers...
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2024-11-01
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| author | Yangyang Xu Nathanael P. Ribar Jeffrey Sachnik Gunnar W. Schade Andrew John Lockley Yi Ge Zhang Pengfei Yu Jianxin Hu Guus J. M. Velders |
| author_facet | Yangyang Xu Nathanael P. Ribar Jeffrey Sachnik Gunnar W. Schade Andrew John Lockley Yi Ge Zhang Pengfei Yu Jianxin Hu Guus J. M. Velders |
| author_sort | Yangyang Xu |
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| description | Large volcanic eruptions, such as the prehistoric Yellowstone eruption, induce abrupt global cooling—by some estimates at a rate of ~1 °C/year, lasting for more than a decade. An abrupt global cooling of several °C—even if only lasting a few years—would present immediate, drastic stress on biodiversity and food production. This cooling poses a global catastrophic risk to human society beyond the immediate and direct impact of eruptions. Using a simple climate model, this paper discusses the possibility of counteracting large volcanic cooling with the intentional release of greenhouse gases. Longer-lived compounds (e.g., CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub>) are unsuitable for this purpose, but selected fluorinated gases (F-gases), either individually or in combinations, could be released at gigaton scale to offset large volcanic cooling substantially. We identify candidate F-gases (e.g., C<sub>4</sub>F<sub>6</sub> and CH<sub>3</sub>F) and derive radiative and chemical properties of ‘ideal’ compounds matching specific cooling events. Geophysical constraints on manufacturing and stockpiling due to mineral availability are considered, alongside technical and economic implications based on present-day market assumptions. The effects and uncertainty due to atmospheric chemistry related to aerosol injection, F-gases release, and solar dimming are discussed in the context of large volcanic perturbation. The caveats and future steps using more complex chemistry–climate models are discussed. Despite the speculative nature of the magnitude and composition of F-gases, our conceptual analysis has implications for testing the possibility of mitigating certain global catastrophic cooling risks (e.g., nuclear winter, asteroid impact, and glacier transition) via intentional intervention. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-a664c44d711c4e66907e4e9a420e1ae52024-11-26T17:50:22ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332024-11-011511132210.3390/atmos15111322Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions?Yangyang Xu0Nathanael P. Ribar1Jeffrey Sachnik2Gunnar W. Schade3Andrew John Lockley4Yi Ge Zhang5Pengfei Yu6Jianxin Hu7Guus J. M. Velders8Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USADepartment of Atmospheric Science, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY 82071, USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX 77843, USAIndependent Researcher, London, UKGuangzhou Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, ChinaInstitute for Environmental and Climate Research, Jinan University, Guangzhou 511496, ChinaDepartment of Environmental Science, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaNational Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Antonie van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721 MA Bilthoven, The NetherlandsLarge volcanic eruptions, such as the prehistoric Yellowstone eruption, induce abrupt global cooling—by some estimates at a rate of ~1 °C/year, lasting for more than a decade. An abrupt global cooling of several °C—even if only lasting a few years—would present immediate, drastic stress on biodiversity and food production. This cooling poses a global catastrophic risk to human society beyond the immediate and direct impact of eruptions. Using a simple climate model, this paper discusses the possibility of counteracting large volcanic cooling with the intentional release of greenhouse gases. Longer-lived compounds (e.g., CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub>) are unsuitable for this purpose, but selected fluorinated gases (F-gases), either individually or in combinations, could be released at gigaton scale to offset large volcanic cooling substantially. We identify candidate F-gases (e.g., C<sub>4</sub>F<sub>6</sub> and CH<sub>3</sub>F) and derive radiative and chemical properties of ‘ideal’ compounds matching specific cooling events. Geophysical constraints on manufacturing and stockpiling due to mineral availability are considered, alongside technical and economic implications based on present-day market assumptions. The effects and uncertainty due to atmospheric chemistry related to aerosol injection, F-gases release, and solar dimming are discussed in the context of large volcanic perturbation. The caveats and future steps using more complex chemistry–climate models are discussed. Despite the speculative nature of the magnitude and composition of F-gases, our conceptual analysis has implications for testing the possibility of mitigating certain global catastrophic cooling risks (e.g., nuclear winter, asteroid impact, and glacier transition) via intentional intervention.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1322geoengineeringcounter-geoengineeringsimple climate modelsupervolcanic eruptionsfluorinated gases |
| spellingShingle | Yangyang Xu Nathanael P. Ribar Jeffrey Sachnik Gunnar W. Schade Andrew John Lockley Yi Ge Zhang Pengfei Yu Jianxin Hu Guus J. M. Velders Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions? Atmosphere geoengineering counter-geoengineering simple climate model supervolcanic eruptions fluorinated gases |
| title | Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions? |
| title_full | Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions? |
| title_fullStr | Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions? |
| title_full_unstemmed | Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions? |
| title_short | Can the Artificial Release of Fluorinated Gases Offset Global Cooling Due to Supervolcanic Eruptions? |
| title_sort | can the artificial release of fluorinated gases offset global cooling due to supervolcanic eruptions |
| topic | geoengineering counter-geoengineering simple climate model supervolcanic eruptions fluorinated gases |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/15/11/1322 |
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