The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria
Nigeria has one of the greatest electricity deficits globally and, even in areas connected to the central grid, struggles to provide reliable power across the nation. Frequent system collapses and widespread reliance on diesel generation present a burden for Nigerian households and the economy as a...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Energy Strategy Reviews |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001476 |
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| author | Sarah Golobish Rudolf Yeganyan Naomi Tan Carla Cannone Mark Howells |
| author_facet | Sarah Golobish Rudolf Yeganyan Naomi Tan Carla Cannone Mark Howells |
| author_sort | Sarah Golobish |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Nigeria has one of the greatest electricity deficits globally and, even in areas connected to the central grid, struggles to provide reliable power across the nation. Frequent system collapses and widespread reliance on diesel generation present a burden for Nigerian households and the economy as a whole. One causal factor in these collapses is capacity inadequacy owing to reduced plant availability as plants are frequently non-operational due to maintenance or other management issues. Using a combination of OSeMOSYS and FlexTool modelling, this study shows the significant burden that persistently unavailable plants present for decarbonisation of the Nigerian energy system. Modelling which includes reliability improvements nearly halves total system costs and emissions versus business-as-usual. Further, Nigeria is unable to meet its 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) without such improvements, indicating that increasing plant availability and reducing diesel generator use must be prioritized in policy to support national implementation of these targets. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-92c99a9e669d41729d99a2b6f96c7a6a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2211-467X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Strategy Reviews |
| spelling | doaj-art-92c99a9e669d41729d99a2b6f96c7a6a2025-08-20T03:45:12ZengElsevierEnergy Strategy Reviews2211-467X2025-07-016010178410.1016/j.esr.2025.101784The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in NigeriaSarah Golobish0Rudolf Yeganyan1Naomi Tan2Carla Cannone3Mark Howells4Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Weeks Building, 16-18 Prince's Gardens, London, SW7 1NE, United KingdomCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Weeks Building, 16-18 Prince's Gardens, London, SW7 1NE, United Kingdom; STEER Centre, Department of Geography, School of Social Science, Loughborough University, Brockington Building, Epinal Way, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United Kingdom; Correspnding author. Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Weeks Building, 16-18 Prince's Gardens, London, SW7 1NE, United Kingdom.Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Weeks Building, 16-18 Prince's Gardens, London, SW7 1NE, United Kingdom; STEER Centre, Department of Geography, School of Social Science, Loughborough University, Brockington Building, Epinal Way, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United KingdomCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Weeks Building, 16-18 Prince's Gardens, London, SW7 1NE, United KingdomCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, Weeks Building, 16-18 Prince's Gardens, London, SW7 1NE, United Kingdom; STEER Centre, Department of Geography, School of Social Science, Loughborough University, Brockington Building, Epinal Way, Loughborough, LE11 3TU, United KingdomNigeria has one of the greatest electricity deficits globally and, even in areas connected to the central grid, struggles to provide reliable power across the nation. Frequent system collapses and widespread reliance on diesel generation present a burden for Nigerian households and the economy as a whole. One causal factor in these collapses is capacity inadequacy owing to reduced plant availability as plants are frequently non-operational due to maintenance or other management issues. Using a combination of OSeMOSYS and FlexTool modelling, this study shows the significant burden that persistently unavailable plants present for decarbonisation of the Nigerian energy system. Modelling which includes reliability improvements nearly halves total system costs and emissions versus business-as-usual. Further, Nigeria is unable to meet its 2021 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) without such improvements, indicating that increasing plant availability and reducing diesel generator use must be prioritized in policy to support national implementation of these targets.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001476OSeMOSYSEnergy modellingDiesel generatorsNigeriaFlexToolEnergy transition |
| spellingShingle | Sarah Golobish Rudolf Yeganyan Naomi Tan Carla Cannone Mark Howells The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria Energy Strategy Reviews OSeMOSYS Energy modelling Diesel generators Nigeria FlexTool Energy transition |
| title | The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria |
| title_full | The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria |
| title_fullStr | The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria |
| title_full_unstemmed | The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria |
| title_short | The Burden of the Broken Grid: Modelling power-sector reliability to support low carbon development in Nigeria |
| title_sort | burden of the broken grid modelling power sector reliability to support low carbon development in nigeria |
| topic | OSeMOSYS Energy modelling Diesel generators Nigeria FlexTool Energy transition |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211467X25001476 |
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