Prediction OPEC oil price utilizing long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron models
The present study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of two predictive models, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), with a specific emphasis on their effectiveness in predicting oil prices, particularly those of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In this s...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824012134 |
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| author | Hiyam Abdulrahim Safiya Mukhtar Alshibani Omer Ibrahim Azhari A. Elhag |
| author_facet | Hiyam Abdulrahim Safiya Mukhtar Alshibani Omer Ibrahim Azhari A. Elhag |
| author_sort | Hiyam Abdulrahim |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The present study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of two predictive models, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), with a specific emphasis on their effectiveness in predicting oil prices, particularly those of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In this study, three fundamental statistical measures are utilized: The Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE), the Mean Squared Error (MSE), and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results demonstrate that the LSTM model regularly surpasses the MLP model in the three benchmarks. In particular, the LSTM model demonstrates lower values for SMAPE, MSE, and MAPE, indicating higher prediction accuracy. The decreased error scores linked to the LSTM model highlight its improved capacity for precise oil price prediction in comparison to the MLP model. These results signify a notable progress in the use of machine learning techniques for predicting OPEC oil prices. Moreover, this study provides invaluable perspectives for OPEC management, policymakers, and organizations focused on oil price fluctuations, therefore contributing to the wider endeavour of enhancing the stability and economic sustainability of the oil pricing system in OPEC countries. The consequences of the study include the promotion of a pricing system that facilitates the achievement of economic and social development goals in these countries. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-88528d8ccd8e4f0f80c40fad3ebbcf2b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1110-0168 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Alexandria Engineering Journal |
| spelling | doaj-art-88528d8ccd8e4f0f80c40fad3ebbcf2b2025-01-09T06:13:25ZengElsevierAlexandria Engineering Journal1110-01682025-01-01110607612Prediction OPEC oil price utilizing long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron modelsHiyam Abdulrahim0Safiya Mukhtar Alshibani1Omer Ibrahim2Azhari A. Elhag3Department of Economics, College of Business Administration, Princess Nourah bint Abdulrahman University, Saudi Arabia; Corresponding author.Department of Business Administration, College of Business Administration, Princess Nourah Bint Abdulrahman University, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Science and Technology, Mathematics Program University College, Rania Taif University, Taif, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Science, Taif University, Taif, Saudi ArabiaThe present study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of two predictive models, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), with a specific emphasis on their effectiveness in predicting oil prices, particularly those of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In this study, three fundamental statistical measures are utilized: The Symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (SMAPE), the Mean Squared Error (MSE), and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results demonstrate that the LSTM model regularly surpasses the MLP model in the three benchmarks. In particular, the LSTM model demonstrates lower values for SMAPE, MSE, and MAPE, indicating higher prediction accuracy. The decreased error scores linked to the LSTM model highlight its improved capacity for precise oil price prediction in comparison to the MLP model. These results signify a notable progress in the use of machine learning techniques for predicting OPEC oil prices. Moreover, this study provides invaluable perspectives for OPEC management, policymakers, and organizations focused on oil price fluctuations, therefore contributing to the wider endeavour of enhancing the stability and economic sustainability of the oil pricing system in OPEC countries. The consequences of the study include the promotion of a pricing system that facilitates the achievement of economic and social development goals in these countries.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824012134Statistics metricsPredictionOil priceLong Short-Term MemoryMultilayer perceptron |
| spellingShingle | Hiyam Abdulrahim Safiya Mukhtar Alshibani Omer Ibrahim Azhari A. Elhag Prediction OPEC oil price utilizing long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron models Alexandria Engineering Journal Statistics metrics Prediction Oil price Long Short-Term Memory Multilayer perceptron |
| title | Prediction OPEC oil price utilizing long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron models |
| title_full | Prediction OPEC oil price utilizing long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron models |
| title_fullStr | Prediction OPEC oil price utilizing long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction OPEC oil price utilizing long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron models |
| title_short | Prediction OPEC oil price utilizing long short-term memory and multi-layer perceptron models |
| title_sort | prediction opec oil price utilizing long short term memory and multi layer perceptron models |
| topic | Statistics metrics Prediction Oil price Long Short-Term Memory Multilayer perceptron |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1110016824012134 |
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