Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone
Climate transition zones are ecologically sensitive regions that respond to changes in complex natural conditions. Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution trends and impact factors of landscape ecological risk is crucial for maintaining regional ecosystem security. However, research predominantly foc...
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| Format: | Article |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2024.1471164/full |
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| author | Chenghang Li Chenghang Li Chenghang Li Fen Qin Fen Qin Fen Qin Zhenzhen Liu Zhenzhen Liu Ziwu Pan Ziwu Pan Dongkai Gao Dongkai Gao Zhansheng Han Zhansheng Han |
| author_facet | Chenghang Li Chenghang Li Chenghang Li Fen Qin Fen Qin Fen Qin Zhenzhen Liu Zhenzhen Liu Ziwu Pan Ziwu Pan Dongkai Gao Dongkai Gao Zhansheng Han Zhansheng Han |
| author_sort | Chenghang Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate transition zones are ecologically sensitive regions that respond to changes in complex natural conditions. Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution trends and impact factors of landscape ecological risk is crucial for maintaining regional ecosystem security. However, research predominantly focused on the past analytical paradigm, which often needed more strategic predictions for future scenarios tailored to diverse developmental requirements. This study analyzed land use changes in the Huai River Basin during 2000, 2010, and 2020 and used the Future Land Use Simulation model to conduct a multi-scenario simulation for 2030. Subsequently, this study assessed the landscape ecological risk from 2000 to 2030 and analyzed the influencing mechanisms using the ridge regression model. The results showed that: (1) The primary transitions were concentrated between cropland and construction land. By 2030, the area of construction land was projected to continue to expand, with the greatest increase of 2906 km2 anticipated in the natural development scenario. (2) The overall spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk showed a “high in the east and low in the west” distribution, with the lowest risk areas predominating (accounting for over 43%). Over the past 20 years, the risk initially increased and then decreased, and by 2030, the risk was expected to decline further. (3) The risk exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation. By 2030, the constraint of spatial location on risk distribution would decrease. Local spatial clustering was mainly characterized by “Low-Low” regions (accounting for 20%). (4) Vegetation cover consistently correlated negatively with ecological risk and was the most influential factor, with relative contribution rates all exceeding 21%. The findings have provided a scientific reference for the ecological and environmental management of areas with intense human activity under complex climatic conditions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-81e3a41b9fe34d758ab69e9d62163a2b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2296-701X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-81e3a41b9fe34d758ab69e9d62163a2b2024-12-13T06:21:50ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution2296-701X2024-12-011210.3389/fevo.2024.14711641471164Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zoneChenghang Li0Chenghang Li1Chenghang Li2Fen Qin3Fen Qin4Fen Qin5Zhenzhen Liu6Zhenzhen Liu7Ziwu Pan8Ziwu Pan9Dongkai Gao10Dongkai Gao11Zhansheng Han12Zhansheng Han13The Yellow River Civilization and The Sustainable Development Research Center, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaThe Yellow River Civilization and The Sustainable Development Research Center, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaCollege of Geography and Environmental Science, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaKey Laboratory of Geospatial Technology for the Middle and Lower Yellow River Regions, Ministry of Education, Henan University, Kaifeng, ChinaClimate transition zones are ecologically sensitive regions that respond to changes in complex natural conditions. Analyzing the spatiotemporal evolution trends and impact factors of landscape ecological risk is crucial for maintaining regional ecosystem security. However, research predominantly focused on the past analytical paradigm, which often needed more strategic predictions for future scenarios tailored to diverse developmental requirements. This study analyzed land use changes in the Huai River Basin during 2000, 2010, and 2020 and used the Future Land Use Simulation model to conduct a multi-scenario simulation for 2030. Subsequently, this study assessed the landscape ecological risk from 2000 to 2030 and analyzed the influencing mechanisms using the ridge regression model. The results showed that: (1) The primary transitions were concentrated between cropland and construction land. By 2030, the area of construction land was projected to continue to expand, with the greatest increase of 2906 km2 anticipated in the natural development scenario. (2) The overall spatial pattern of landscape ecological risk showed a “high in the east and low in the west” distribution, with the lowest risk areas predominating (accounting for over 43%). Over the past 20 years, the risk initially increased and then decreased, and by 2030, the risk was expected to decline further. (3) The risk exhibited significant positive spatial autocorrelation. By 2030, the constraint of spatial location on risk distribution would decrease. Local spatial clustering was mainly characterized by “Low-Low” regions (accounting for 20%). (4) Vegetation cover consistently correlated negatively with ecological risk and was the most influential factor, with relative contribution rates all exceeding 21%. The findings have provided a scientific reference for the ecological and environmental management of areas with intense human activity under complex climatic conditions.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2024.1471164/fullclimatic transition zoneslandscape ecological riskmulti-scenario simulationridge regressionHuai river basin |
| spellingShingle | Chenghang Li Chenghang Li Chenghang Li Fen Qin Fen Qin Fen Qin Zhenzhen Liu Zhenzhen Liu Ziwu Pan Ziwu Pan Dongkai Gao Dongkai Gao Zhansheng Han Zhansheng Han Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution climatic transition zones landscape ecological risk multi-scenario simulation ridge regression Huai river basin |
| title | Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone |
| title_full | Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone |
| title_fullStr | Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone |
| title_short | Multi-scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone |
| title_sort | multi scenario assessment of landscape ecological risk in the transitional zone between the warm temperate zone and the northern subtropical zone |
| topic | climatic transition zones landscape ecological risk multi-scenario simulation ridge regression Huai river basin |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2024.1471164/full |
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