Analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context
We evaluate the added value of a forecast service that can provide probabilistic predictions for adverse weather events for two differentiated seasons, corresponding to the same productive cycle. The paper builds on a cost-loss dynamic model, by considering the role of forecasting systems in the dec...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Universitat Politècnica de València
2015-12-01
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| Series: | Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://polipapers.upv.es/index.php/EARN/article/view/4815 |
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| _version_ | 1846144505514819584 |
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| author | Emilio Cerdá Sonia Quiroga |
| author_facet | Emilio Cerdá Sonia Quiroga |
| author_sort | Emilio Cerdá |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We evaluate the added value of a forecast service that can provide probabilistic predictions for adverse weather events for two differentiated seasons, corresponding to the same productive cycle. The paper builds on a cost-loss dynamic model, by considering the role of forecasting systems in the decision making process. We present the analytical solution for this problem which is consistent with the numerical results in the literature. However, we prove that there is a range of regions for the optimal policy depending on the cost of crop protection, the avoided loss and the quality of the information available. Finally, we illustrate the results with a numerical example. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7b9ce1f693454ba2b02cf6804c977eec |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1578-0732 2174-7350 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2015-12-01 |
| publisher | Universitat Politècnica de València |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales |
| spelling | doaj-art-7b9ce1f693454ba2b02cf6804c977eec2024-12-02T07:12:43ZengUniversitat Politècnica de ValènciaEconomía Agraria y Recursos Naturales1578-07322174-73502015-12-0115253010.7201/earn.2015.02.013073Analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic contextEmilio Cerdá0Sonia Quiroga1Universidad Complutense de MadridUniversidad de AlcaláWe evaluate the added value of a forecast service that can provide probabilistic predictions for adverse weather events for two differentiated seasons, corresponding to the same productive cycle. The paper builds on a cost-loss dynamic model, by considering the role of forecasting systems in the decision making process. We present the analytical solution for this problem which is consistent with the numerical results in the literature. However, we prove that there is a range of regions for the optimal policy depending on the cost of crop protection, the avoided loss and the quality of the information available. Finally, we illustrate the results with a numerical example.https://polipapers.upv.es/index.php/EARN/article/view/4815cost-loss ratiocrop yield protectiondynamic decision modelsclimate risks. |
| spellingShingle | Emilio Cerdá Sonia Quiroga Analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context Economía Agraria y Recursos Naturales cost-loss ratio crop yield protection dynamic decision models climate risks. |
| title | Analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context |
| title_full | Analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context |
| title_fullStr | Analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context |
| title_short | Analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context |
| title_sort | analysing the economic value of extreme climatic events information to improve crop risk management decisions in a dynamic context |
| topic | cost-loss ratio crop yield protection dynamic decision models climate risks. |
| url | https://polipapers.upv.es/index.php/EARN/article/view/4815 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT emiliocerda analysingtheeconomicvalueofextremeclimaticeventsinformationtoimprovecropriskmanagementdecisionsinadynamiccontext AT soniaquiroga analysingtheeconomicvalueofextremeclimaticeventsinformationtoimprovecropriskmanagementdecisionsinadynamiccontext |