Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants
Abstract The same cumulative carbon emission reduction target can correspond to multiple emission reduction pathways. This study explores how different coal power transition pathways with the same cumulative emissions reductions impact the transition costs, by assessing the dynamic transition proces...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55332-5 |
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| _version_ | 1841559220897447936 |
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| author | Rui Wang Wenjia Cai Ryna Yiyun Cui Lin Huang Weidong Ma Binbin Qi Jia Zhang Jiang Bian Haoran Li Shihui Zhang Jianxiang Shen Xian Zhang Jiutian Zhang Wei Li Le Yu Ning Zhang Can Wang |
| author_facet | Rui Wang Wenjia Cai Ryna Yiyun Cui Lin Huang Weidong Ma Binbin Qi Jia Zhang Jiang Bian Haoran Li Shihui Zhang Jianxiang Shen Xian Zhang Jiutian Zhang Wei Li Le Yu Ning Zhang Can Wang |
| author_sort | Rui Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The same cumulative carbon emission reduction target can correspond to multiple emission reduction pathways. This study explores how different coal power transition pathways with the same cumulative emissions reductions impact the transition costs, by assessing the dynamic transition processes for coal plants adopting multiple mitigation technologies concurrently or sequentially, such as flexibility operation, biomass and coal co-firing, carbon capture and storage, and compulsory retirement. We develop a plant-level dynamic optimization model and apply it to China’s 4200+ coal plants. We find that under deep decarbonization, the majority of Chinese coal plants retrofit with multiple technologies to reduce emissions and retire naturally at lower costs while contributing to grid stability. Optimizing the pathway can potentially save over 700 billion U.S. Dollars for achieving the same target or increase cumulative emissions reduction from 30% to 50% at no additional cost. This analysis can help inform a cost-effective coal phase-out under China’s carbon neutrality. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-755f87732c0b43889a4269fd7d786517 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-755f87732c0b43889a4269fd7d7865172025-01-05T12:40:30ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232025-01-0116111110.1038/s41467-024-55332-5Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plantsRui Wang0Wenjia Cai1Ryna Yiyun Cui2Lin Huang3Weidong Ma4Binbin Qi5Jia Zhang6Jiang Bian7Haoran Li8Shihui Zhang9Jianxiang Shen10Xian Zhang11Jiutian Zhang12Wei Li13Le Yu14Ning Zhang15Can Wang16Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityCenter for Global Sustainability, School of Public Policy, University of MarylandMicrosoft Research AI4ScienceMicrosoft Research AsiaState Key Laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Prospecting, China University of Petroleum (Beijing)Microsoft Research AI4ScienceMicrosoft Research AsiaChina Electric Power Planning & Engineering InstituteDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityThe Administrative Centre for China’s Agenda 21, Ministry of Science and TechnologyGreen Development Institute, Beijing Normal UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies, Tsinghua UniversityDepartment of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua UniversityState Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua UniversityAbstract The same cumulative carbon emission reduction target can correspond to multiple emission reduction pathways. This study explores how different coal power transition pathways with the same cumulative emissions reductions impact the transition costs, by assessing the dynamic transition processes for coal plants adopting multiple mitigation technologies concurrently or sequentially, such as flexibility operation, biomass and coal co-firing, carbon capture and storage, and compulsory retirement. We develop a plant-level dynamic optimization model and apply it to China’s 4200+ coal plants. We find that under deep decarbonization, the majority of Chinese coal plants retrofit with multiple technologies to reduce emissions and retire naturally at lower costs while contributing to grid stability. Optimizing the pathway can potentially save over 700 billion U.S. Dollars for achieving the same target or increase cumulative emissions reduction from 30% to 50% at no additional cost. This analysis can help inform a cost-effective coal phase-out under China’s carbon neutrality.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55332-5 |
| spellingShingle | Rui Wang Wenjia Cai Ryna Yiyun Cui Lin Huang Weidong Ma Binbin Qi Jia Zhang Jiang Bian Haoran Li Shihui Zhang Jianxiang Shen Xian Zhang Jiutian Zhang Wei Li Le Yu Ning Zhang Can Wang Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants Nature Communications |
| title | Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants |
| title_full | Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants |
| title_fullStr | Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants |
| title_full_unstemmed | Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants |
| title_short | Reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of China’s coal power plants |
| title_sort | reducing transition costs towards carbon neutrality of china s coal power plants |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-55332-5 |
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