Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst‐Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment
Abstract Severe space weather was identified as a risk to the UK in 2010 as part of a wider review of natural hazards triggered by the societal disruption caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April of that year. To support further risk assessment by government officials, and at...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2021-04-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002593 |
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| author | Mike Hapgood Matthew J. Angling Gemma Attrill Mario Bisi Paul S. Cannon Clive Dyer Jonathan P. Eastwood Sean Elvidge Mark Gibbs Richard A. Harrison Colin Hord Richard B. Horne David R. Jackson Bryn Jones Simon Machin Cathryn N. Mitchell John Preston John Rees Neil C. Rogers Graham Routledge Keith Ryden Rick Tanner Alan W. P. Thomson James A. Wild Mike Willis |
| author_facet | Mike Hapgood Matthew J. Angling Gemma Attrill Mario Bisi Paul S. Cannon Clive Dyer Jonathan P. Eastwood Sean Elvidge Mark Gibbs Richard A. Harrison Colin Hord Richard B. Horne David R. Jackson Bryn Jones Simon Machin Cathryn N. Mitchell John Preston John Rees Neil C. Rogers Graham Routledge Keith Ryden Rick Tanner Alan W. P. Thomson James A. Wild Mike Willis |
| author_sort | Mike Hapgood |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Severe space weather was identified as a risk to the UK in 2010 as part of a wider review of natural hazards triggered by the societal disruption caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April of that year. To support further risk assessment by government officials, and at their request, we developed a set of reasonable worst‐case scenarios and first published them as a technical report in 2012 (current version published in 2020). Each scenario focused on a space weather environment that could disrupt a particular national infrastructure such as electric power or satellites, thus, enabling officials to explore the resilience of that infrastructure against severe space weather through discussions with relevant experts from other parts of government and with the operators of that infrastructure. This approach also encouraged us to focus on the environmental features that are key to generating adverse impacts. In this paper, we outline the scientific evidence that we have used to develop these scenarios, and the refinements made to them as new evidence emerged. We show how these scenarios are also considered as an ensemble so that government officials can prepare for a severe space weather event, during which many or all of the different scenarios will materialize. Finally, we note that this ensemble also needs to include insights into how public behavior will play out during a severe space weather event and hence the importance of providing robust, evidence‐based information on space weather and its adverse impacts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-72286e0ec05e48809f7d7f1c0a146a2c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-04-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-72286e0ec05e48809f7d7f1c0a146a2c2025-01-14T16:31:29ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902021-04-01194n/an/a10.1029/2020SW002593Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst‐Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk AssessmentMike Hapgood0Matthew J. Angling1Gemma Attrill2Mario Bisi3Paul S. Cannon4Clive Dyer5Jonathan P. Eastwood6Sean Elvidge7Mark Gibbs8Richard A. Harrison9Colin Hord10Richard B. Horne11David R. Jackson12Bryn Jones13Simon Machin14Cathryn N. Mitchell15John Preston16John Rees17Neil C. Rogers18Graham Routledge19Keith Ryden20Rick Tanner21Alan W. P. Thomson22James A. Wild23Mike Willis24RAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Campus Didcot Oxfordshire UKSpire Unit 5A Glasgow UKDefence Science and Technology Laboratory Intelligence InnovationRAF Wyton Huntingdon UKRAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Campus Didcot Oxfordshire UKSchool of Engineering University of Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham UKDepartment of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Surrey Space Centre University of Surrey GuildfordSurrey UKImperial College Space and Atmospheric Physics The Blackett Laboratory Imperial College London London UKSchool of Engineering University of Birmingham Edgbaston Birmingham UKMet Office Exeter Devon UKRAL Space STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Harwell Campus Didcot Oxfordshire UKCivil Aviation Authority Aviation House Crawley West Sussex UKBritish Antarctic Survey Cambridge UKMet Office Exeter Devon UKSolarMetrics Ltd. Swindon UKMet Office Exeter Devon UKCentre for Space Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Bath Claverton Down Bath UKDepartment of Sociology University of Essex Wivenhoe Park Colchester UKBritish Geological Survey Environmental Science Centre Nicker HillKeyworth Nottingham UKDepartment of Physics Lancaster University Lancaster UKDefence Science and Technology Laboratory Portsdown West Fareham UKDepartment of Electrical and Electronic Engineering Surrey Space Centre University of Surrey GuildfordSurrey UKPHE Centre for Radiation Chemical and Environmental Hazards Harwell Campus Didcot Oxfordshire UKBritish Geological Survey The Lyell Centre Research Avenue South Edinburgh UKDepartment of Physics Lancaster University Lancaster UKUK Space Agency Polaris House Swindon UKAbstract Severe space weather was identified as a risk to the UK in 2010 as part of a wider review of natural hazards triggered by the societal disruption caused by the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April of that year. To support further risk assessment by government officials, and at their request, we developed a set of reasonable worst‐case scenarios and first published them as a technical report in 2012 (current version published in 2020). Each scenario focused on a space weather environment that could disrupt a particular national infrastructure such as electric power or satellites, thus, enabling officials to explore the resilience of that infrastructure against severe space weather through discussions with relevant experts from other parts of government and with the operators of that infrastructure. This approach also encouraged us to focus on the environmental features that are key to generating adverse impacts. In this paper, we outline the scientific evidence that we have used to develop these scenarios, and the refinements made to them as new evidence emerged. We show how these scenarios are also considered as an ensemble so that government officials can prepare for a severe space weather event, during which many or all of the different scenarios will materialize. Finally, we note that this ensemble also needs to include insights into how public behavior will play out during a severe space weather event and hence the importance of providing robust, evidence‐based information on space weather and its adverse impacts.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002593extreme conditionsnational risk assessmentreasonable worst‐case scenariosspace weathertechnological impacts |
| spellingShingle | Mike Hapgood Matthew J. Angling Gemma Attrill Mario Bisi Paul S. Cannon Clive Dyer Jonathan P. Eastwood Sean Elvidge Mark Gibbs Richard A. Harrison Colin Hord Richard B. Horne David R. Jackson Bryn Jones Simon Machin Cathryn N. Mitchell John Preston John Rees Neil C. Rogers Graham Routledge Keith Ryden Rick Tanner Alan W. P. Thomson James A. Wild Mike Willis Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst‐Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment Space Weather extreme conditions national risk assessment reasonable worst‐case scenarios space weather technological impacts |
| title | Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst‐Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment |
| title_full | Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst‐Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment |
| title_fullStr | Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst‐Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst‐Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment |
| title_short | Development of Space Weather Reasonable Worst‐Case Scenarios for the UK National Risk Assessment |
| title_sort | development of space weather reasonable worst case scenarios for the uk national risk assessment |
| topic | extreme conditions national risk assessment reasonable worst‐case scenarios space weather technological impacts |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002593 |
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