From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience
Agriculture is an essential factor in the climate-food-biodiversity nexus, affecting climate resilience and, ultimately, whether we achieve the global Sustainable Development Goals. This study aimed to investigate the local-global interaction by integrating sustainability indicators with three model...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Environmental and Sustainability Indicators |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725002764 |
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| author | Jana Poláková Vera Potopova Zuzana Smeets Kristkova Jeroen Weststrate Willem-Jan van Zeist Annabel Oosterwijk Michaela Kolářová Marcos Dominguez Viera Pavel Zahradníček Petr Štěpánek Nils Bunnefeld Markus Dettenhofer Ioannis Manikas |
| author_facet | Jana Poláková Vera Potopova Zuzana Smeets Kristkova Jeroen Weststrate Willem-Jan van Zeist Annabel Oosterwijk Michaela Kolářová Marcos Dominguez Viera Pavel Zahradníček Petr Štěpánek Nils Bunnefeld Markus Dettenhofer Ioannis Manikas |
| author_sort | Jana Poláková |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Agriculture is an essential factor in the climate-food-biodiversity nexus, affecting climate resilience and, ultimately, whether we achieve the global Sustainable Development Goals. This study aimed to investigate the local-global interaction by integrating sustainability indicators with three modelling methods to address agriculture and climate resilience. The novelty of this research lies in its innovative methodology, which employs locally sourced indicators to integrate with climate and crop growth models (DSSAT, local biophysics), fed into large-scale equilibrium models (MAGNET, global economics) and Life-Cycle Assessment tools (LCA, environmental feedback). This enables precise mapping and analyzing regions that are most and least vulnerable to climate change, which is crucial for informing policymakers. Additionally, the novel methodology has incorporated focus groups to design a set of indicators that are compatible with typological input data for the modelling protocol.Our methodology quantified the impact of heat, drought, CO2, and extreme weather conditions on local yield changes. This approach uniquely combined regional-level data with five types of indicators: farming practices, water, climate/soil, biodiversity, and economics. Focus groups were instrumental in the process of gathering, selecting, and fine-tuning indicators, identifying gaps, and areas where policies should be tailored and targeted.This innovative work represents a significant step forward for evidence-based policy-making and allows us to emphasize the role of “local-to-global” feedback in scaling up models. It demonstrates how localized climate extremes can disproportionately influence the stability of global wheat production. It is important to highlight that biodiversity indicators are significantly missing from the large-scale modelling of the climate-food-biodiversity nexus. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6543d439f822448fbfd93dc4fc01d26f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2665-9727 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-09-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental and Sustainability Indicators |
| spelling | doaj-art-6543d439f822448fbfd93dc4fc01d26f2025-08-26T04:14:32ZengElsevierEnvironmental and Sustainability Indicators2665-97272025-09-012710085510.1016/j.indic.2025.100855From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilienceJana Poláková0Vera Potopova1Zuzana Smeets Kristkova2Jeroen Weststrate3Willem-Jan van Zeist4Annabel Oosterwijk5Michaela Kolářová6Marcos Dominguez Viera7Pavel Zahradníček8Petr Štěpánek9Nils Bunnefeld10Markus Dettenhofer11Ioannis Manikas12Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Agrobiology, Food and Natural Resources, Kamycka 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic; Corresponding author. Czech University of Life Sciences, Faculty of Agrobiology, Food and Natural Resources, Kamýcká 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic.Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Agrobiology, Food and Natural Resources, Kamycka 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech RepublicCzech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, Kamycka 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech Republic; Wageningen Social & Economic Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB, Wageningen, the NetherlandsWageningen Social & Economic Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB, Wageningen, the NetherlandsWageningen Social & Economic Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB, Wageningen, the NetherlandsWageningen Social & Economic Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB, Wageningen, the NetherlandsCzech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Agrobiology, Food and Natural Resources, Kamycka 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech RepublicWageningen Social & Economic Research, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB, Wageningen, the NetherlandsGlobal Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, Bělidla 986/4a, 603 00 Brno, Czech RepublicCzech Hydrometeorological Institute, Kroftova 43, 616 67 Brno, Czech RepublicUniversity of Stirling, Stirling, FK9 4LA, United KingdomCzech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Agrobiology, Food and Natural Resources, Kamycka 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech RepublicCzech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Agrobiology, Food and Natural Resources, Kamycka 129, 165 00 Prague, Czech RepublicAgriculture is an essential factor in the climate-food-biodiversity nexus, affecting climate resilience and, ultimately, whether we achieve the global Sustainable Development Goals. This study aimed to investigate the local-global interaction by integrating sustainability indicators with three modelling methods to address agriculture and climate resilience. The novelty of this research lies in its innovative methodology, which employs locally sourced indicators to integrate with climate and crop growth models (DSSAT, local biophysics), fed into large-scale equilibrium models (MAGNET, global economics) and Life-Cycle Assessment tools (LCA, environmental feedback). This enables precise mapping and analyzing regions that are most and least vulnerable to climate change, which is crucial for informing policymakers. Additionally, the novel methodology has incorporated focus groups to design a set of indicators that are compatible with typological input data for the modelling protocol.Our methodology quantified the impact of heat, drought, CO2, and extreme weather conditions on local yield changes. This approach uniquely combined regional-level data with five types of indicators: farming practices, water, climate/soil, biodiversity, and economics. Focus groups were instrumental in the process of gathering, selecting, and fine-tuning indicators, identifying gaps, and areas where policies should be tailored and targeted.This innovative work represents a significant step forward for evidence-based policy-making and allows us to emphasize the role of “local-to-global” feedback in scaling up models. It demonstrates how localized climate extremes can disproportionately influence the stability of global wheat production. It is important to highlight that biodiversity indicators are significantly missing from the large-scale modelling of the climate-food-biodiversity nexus.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725002764IndicatorsModelling methodologyPolicy-makingFocus groupsWinter wheatClimate compound events |
| spellingShingle | Jana Poláková Vera Potopova Zuzana Smeets Kristkova Jeroen Weststrate Willem-Jan van Zeist Annabel Oosterwijk Michaela Kolářová Marcos Dominguez Viera Pavel Zahradníček Petr Štěpánek Nils Bunnefeld Markus Dettenhofer Ioannis Manikas From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience Environmental and Sustainability Indicators Indicators Modelling methodology Policy-making Focus groups Winter wheat Climate compound events |
| title | From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience |
| title_full | From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience |
| title_fullStr | From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience |
| title_full_unstemmed | From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience |
| title_short | From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience |
| title_sort | from local to global and from global to local designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience |
| topic | Indicators Modelling methodology Policy-making Focus groups Winter wheat Climate compound events |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725002764 |
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