From local to global and from global to local: Designing the protocol to model agriculture and climate resilience
Agriculture is an essential factor in the climate-food-biodiversity nexus, affecting climate resilience and, ultimately, whether we achieve the global Sustainable Development Goals. This study aimed to investigate the local-global interaction by integrating sustainability indicators with three model...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2025-09-01
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| Series: | Environmental and Sustainability Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2665972725002764 |
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| Summary: | Agriculture is an essential factor in the climate-food-biodiversity nexus, affecting climate resilience and, ultimately, whether we achieve the global Sustainable Development Goals. This study aimed to investigate the local-global interaction by integrating sustainability indicators with three modelling methods to address agriculture and climate resilience. The novelty of this research lies in its innovative methodology, which employs locally sourced indicators to integrate with climate and crop growth models (DSSAT, local biophysics), fed into large-scale equilibrium models (MAGNET, global economics) and Life-Cycle Assessment tools (LCA, environmental feedback). This enables precise mapping and analyzing regions that are most and least vulnerable to climate change, which is crucial for informing policymakers. Additionally, the novel methodology has incorporated focus groups to design a set of indicators that are compatible with typological input data for the modelling protocol.Our methodology quantified the impact of heat, drought, CO2, and extreme weather conditions on local yield changes. This approach uniquely combined regional-level data with five types of indicators: farming practices, water, climate/soil, biodiversity, and economics. Focus groups were instrumental in the process of gathering, selecting, and fine-tuning indicators, identifying gaps, and areas where policies should be tailored and targeted.This innovative work represents a significant step forward for evidence-based policy-making and allows us to emphasize the role of “local-to-global” feedback in scaling up models. It demonstrates how localized climate extremes can disproportionately influence the stability of global wheat production. It is important to highlight that biodiversity indicators are significantly missing from the large-scale modelling of the climate-food-biodiversity nexus. |
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| ISSN: | 2665-9727 |