Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions
Abstract Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to human activities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with prior warning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currently extremely challenging to accurately predict the arrival time and intern...
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| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-02-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003628 |
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| author | R. Laker T. S. Horbury H. O’Brien E. J. Fauchon‐Jones V. Angelini N. Fargette T. Amerstorfer M. Bauer C. Möstl E. E. Davies J. A. Davies R. Harrison D. Barnes M. Dumbović |
| author_facet | R. Laker T. S. Horbury H. O’Brien E. J. Fauchon‐Jones V. Angelini N. Fargette T. Amerstorfer M. Bauer C. Möstl E. E. Davies J. A. Davies R. Harrison D. Barnes M. Dumbović |
| author_sort | R. Laker |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to human activities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with prior warning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currently extremely challenging to accurately predict the arrival time and internal structure of a CME from coronagraph images alone. In this study, we take advantage of a rare opportunity to use Solar Orbiter, at 0.5 au upstream of Earth, as an upstream solar wind monitor. In combination with low‐latency images from STEREO‐A, we successfully predicted the arrival time of two CME events before they reached Earth. Measurements at Solar Orbiter were used to constrain an ensemble of simulation runs from the ELEvoHI model, reducing the uncertainty in arrival time from 10.4 to 2.5 hr in the first case study. There was also an excellent agreement in the Bz profile between Solar Orbiter and Wind spacecraft for the second case study, despite being separated by 0.5 au and 10° longitude. The opportunity to use Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor will repeat once a year, which should further help assess the efficacy upstream in‐situ measurements in real time space weather forecasting. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4b69e0fb6f36463bafd7b9032fc72c82 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-4b69e0fb6f36463bafd7b9032fc72c822025-01-14T16:30:41ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902024-02-01222n/an/a10.1029/2023SW003628Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather PredictionsR. Laker0T. S. Horbury1H. O’Brien2E. J. Fauchon‐Jones3V. Angelini4N. Fargette5T. Amerstorfer6M. Bauer7C. Möstl8E. E. Davies9J. A. Davies10R. Harrison11D. Barnes12M. Dumbović13Imperial College London, Blackett Laboratory South Kensington UKImperial College London, Blackett Laboratory South Kensington UKImperial College London, Blackett Laboratory South Kensington UKImperial College London, Blackett Laboratory South Kensington UKImperial College London, Blackett Laboratory South Kensington UKImperial College London, Blackett Laboratory South Kensington UKAustrian Space Weather Office Graz AustriaAustrian Space Weather Office Graz AustriaAustrian Space Weather Office Graz AustriaAustrian Space Weather Office Graz AustriaRAL Space, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Didcot UKRAL Space, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Didcot UKRAL Space, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Didcot UKHvar Observatory, Faculty of Geodesy, University of Zagreb Zagreb CroatiaAbstract Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can create significant disruption to human activities and systems on Earth, much of which can be mitigated with prior warning of the upstream solar wind conditions. However, it is currently extremely challenging to accurately predict the arrival time and internal structure of a CME from coronagraph images alone. In this study, we take advantage of a rare opportunity to use Solar Orbiter, at 0.5 au upstream of Earth, as an upstream solar wind monitor. In combination with low‐latency images from STEREO‐A, we successfully predicted the arrival time of two CME events before they reached Earth. Measurements at Solar Orbiter were used to constrain an ensemble of simulation runs from the ELEvoHI model, reducing the uncertainty in arrival time from 10.4 to 2.5 hr in the first case study. There was also an excellent agreement in the Bz profile between Solar Orbiter and Wind spacecraft for the second case study, despite being separated by 0.5 au and 10° longitude. The opportunity to use Solar Orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor will repeat once a year, which should further help assess the efficacy upstream in‐situ measurements in real time space weather forecasting.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003628 |
| spellingShingle | R. Laker T. S. Horbury H. O’Brien E. J. Fauchon‐Jones V. Angelini N. Fargette T. Amerstorfer M. Bauer C. Möstl E. E. Davies J. A. Davies R. Harrison D. Barnes M. Dumbović Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions Space Weather |
| title | Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions |
| title_full | Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions |
| title_fullStr | Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions |
| title_short | Using Solar Orbiter as an Upstream Solar Wind Monitor for Real Time Space Weather Predictions |
| title_sort | using solar orbiter as an upstream solar wind monitor for real time space weather predictions |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003628 |
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