Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers
Abstract Electrification presents opportunities and challenges for household energy affordability. Without careful coordination, the costs of natural gas systems will be borne by a shrinking customer base, driving up bills for those left behind. This affordability issue is worsened by new pipeline i...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09543-5 |
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| author | Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez Morgan R. Edwards Ann F. Fink Zeyneb Magavi |
| author_facet | Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez Morgan R. Edwards Ann F. Fink Zeyneb Magavi |
| author_sort | Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Electrification presents opportunities and challenges for household energy affordability. Without careful coordination, the costs of natural gas systems will be borne by a shrinking customer base, driving up bills for those left behind. This affordability issue is worsened by new pipeline investments, which risk locking communities into increasingly expensive infrastructure. Here, we introduce a framework to quantify the effects of uncoordinated electrification on natural gas customers, integrating household energy data with utility financial and planning documents. Applying our framework first to Massachusetts and then nationwide, we show that vulnerable communities face disproportionate affordability risks during heating electrification transitions. Households that do not electrify may bear a 46% increase in gas bills on average over the next 15 years (relative to current costs). Targeted electrification may help to alleviate energy burdens, but an effective heating transition will ultimately require coordinated, neighborhood-scale strategies that consider the high fixed costs of legacy infrastructure. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-3547b5c6ee0d43f2868d9f94f8628da4 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-3547b5c6ee0d43f2868d9f94f8628da42025-08-20T04:01:51ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115111710.1038/s41598-025-09543-5Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customersJaime Garibay-Rodriguez0Morgan R. Edwards1Ann F. Fink2Zeyneb Magavi3La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–MadisonLa Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–MadisonLa Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–MadisonHEET (Home Energy Efficiency Team)Abstract Electrification presents opportunities and challenges for household energy affordability. Without careful coordination, the costs of natural gas systems will be borne by a shrinking customer base, driving up bills for those left behind. This affordability issue is worsened by new pipeline investments, which risk locking communities into increasingly expensive infrastructure. Here, we introduce a framework to quantify the effects of uncoordinated electrification on natural gas customers, integrating household energy data with utility financial and planning documents. Applying our framework first to Massachusetts and then nationwide, we show that vulnerable communities face disproportionate affordability risks during heating electrification transitions. Households that do not electrify may bear a 46% increase in gas bills on average over the next 15 years (relative to current costs). Targeted electrification may help to alleviate energy burdens, but an effective heating transition will ultimately require coordinated, neighborhood-scale strategies that consider the high fixed costs of legacy infrastructure.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09543-5Energy affordabilityBuilding electrificationNatural gasStranded assetsEnergy transitionsEnergy justice |
| spellingShingle | Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez Morgan R. Edwards Ann F. Fink Zeyneb Magavi Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers Scientific Reports Energy affordability Building electrification Natural gas Stranded assets Energy transitions Energy justice |
| title | Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers |
| title_full | Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers |
| title_fullStr | Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers |
| title_short | Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers |
| title_sort | effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers |
| topic | Energy affordability Building electrification Natural gas Stranded assets Energy transitions Energy justice |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09543-5 |
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