Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers

Abstract Electrification presents opportunities and challenges for household energy affordability. Without careful coordination, the costs of natural gas systems will be borne by a shrinking customer base, driving up bills for those left behind. This affordability issue is worsened by new pipeline i...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez, Morgan R. Edwards, Ann F. Fink, Zeyneb Magavi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2025-07-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09543-5
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849237834948411392
author Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez
Morgan R. Edwards
Ann F. Fink
Zeyneb Magavi
author_facet Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez
Morgan R. Edwards
Ann F. Fink
Zeyneb Magavi
author_sort Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Electrification presents opportunities and challenges for household energy affordability. Without careful coordination, the costs of natural gas systems will be borne by a shrinking customer base, driving up bills for those left behind. This affordability issue is worsened by new pipeline investments, which risk locking communities into increasingly expensive infrastructure. Here, we introduce a framework to quantify the effects of uncoordinated electrification on natural gas customers, integrating household energy data with utility financial and planning documents. Applying our framework first to Massachusetts and then nationwide, we show that vulnerable communities face disproportionate affordability risks during heating electrification transitions. Households that do not electrify may bear a 46% increase in gas bills on average over the next 15 years (relative to current costs). Targeted electrification may help to alleviate energy burdens, but an effective heating transition will ultimately require coordinated, neighborhood-scale strategies that consider the high fixed costs of legacy infrastructure.
format Article
id doaj-art-3547b5c6ee0d43f2868d9f94f8628da4
institution Kabale University
issn 2045-2322
language English
publishDate 2025-07-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Scientific Reports
spelling doaj-art-3547b5c6ee0d43f2868d9f94f8628da42025-08-20T04:01:51ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115111710.1038/s41598-025-09543-5Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customersJaime Garibay-Rodriguez0Morgan R. Edwards1Ann F. Fink2Zeyneb Magavi3La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–MadisonLa Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–MadisonLa Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–MadisonHEET (Home Energy Efficiency Team)Abstract Electrification presents opportunities and challenges for household energy affordability. Without careful coordination, the costs of natural gas systems will be borne by a shrinking customer base, driving up bills for those left behind. This affordability issue is worsened by new pipeline investments, which risk locking communities into increasingly expensive infrastructure. Here, we introduce a framework to quantify the effects of uncoordinated electrification on natural gas customers, integrating household energy data with utility financial and planning documents. Applying our framework first to Massachusetts and then nationwide, we show that vulnerable communities face disproportionate affordability risks during heating electrification transitions. Households that do not electrify may bear a 46% increase in gas bills on average over the next 15 years (relative to current costs). Targeted electrification may help to alleviate energy burdens, but an effective heating transition will ultimately require coordinated, neighborhood-scale strategies that consider the high fixed costs of legacy infrastructure.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09543-5Energy affordabilityBuilding electrificationNatural gasStranded assetsEnergy transitionsEnergy justice
spellingShingle Jaime Garibay-Rodriguez
Morgan R. Edwards
Ann F. Fink
Zeyneb Magavi
Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers
Scientific Reports
Energy affordability
Building electrification
Natural gas
Stranded assets
Energy transitions
Energy justice
title Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers
title_full Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers
title_fullStr Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers
title_full_unstemmed Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers
title_short Effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers
title_sort effects of uncoordinated electrification on energy burdens for natural gas customers
topic Energy affordability
Building electrification
Natural gas
Stranded assets
Energy transitions
Energy justice
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09543-5
work_keys_str_mv AT jaimegaribayrodriguez effectsofuncoordinatedelectrificationonenergyburdensfornaturalgascustomers
AT morganredwards effectsofuncoordinatedelectrificationonenergyburdensfornaturalgascustomers
AT annffink effectsofuncoordinatedelectrificationonenergyburdensfornaturalgascustomers
AT zeynebmagavi effectsofuncoordinatedelectrificationonenergyburdensfornaturalgascustomers