Analyzing covid-19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models, box-jenkins (arima), brown linear exponential smoothing method, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) and seir models
<b>Aim: </b>This study is conducted to inform communities and governments about the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in selected countries: Turkey, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russian, Canada, and Japan.<p> <b>Materials and Methods: </b>For this purpose,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Selcuk University Press
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1325 |
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| author | Mustafa Agah Tekindal Harun Yonar Aynur Yonar Melike Tekindal Mustafa Bahadır Çevrimli Hasan Alkan Zekeriya Safa İnanç Burak Mat |
| author_facet | Mustafa Agah Tekindal Harun Yonar Aynur Yonar Melike Tekindal Mustafa Bahadır Çevrimli Hasan Alkan Zekeriya Safa İnanç Burak Mat |
| author_sort | Mustafa Agah Tekindal |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <b>Aim: </b>This study is conducted to inform communities and governments about
the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in selected countries: Turkey, Germany,
the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russian, Canada, and Japan.<p>
<b>Materials and Methods: </b>For this purpose, the numbers of the COVID-19 epidemic
after the 100th case up to 7/19/2020 for selected countries have been
estimated by using Curve Estimation Models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Linear
Exponential Smoothing Method, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
and SEIR Models.<p>
<b>Results:</b> In the evaluations of the ARDL and SEIR models established, it is determined
that France and Italy have high pandemic growth rates; while Canada
has a low pandemic growth rate. It has also observed that the turning
point of the pandemic occurred on the 72nd day. If there is no change in the
outbreak and governments continue with the same strategies, it is predicted
that the epidemic will begin again in early October 2020 (from September 21
to November 10) and will be effective for an average of 155 days (between 145
and 168 days). It is seen that the observed and predicted daily cumulative new
cases are consistent.<p>
<b>Conclusion:</b> As a result, it can be said that the models used in this study wellcharacterized
outbreak of the COVID-19 in the eight major Western countries
and Turkey. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-309acb651bdb48d1844d47a148bbc03d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1309-6958 2146-1953 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Selcuk University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-309acb651bdb48d1844d47a148bbc03d2025-01-03T01:37:31ZengSelcuk University PressEurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences1309-69582146-19532020-09-013651421551325Analyzing covid-19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models, box-jenkins (arima), brown linear exponential smoothing method, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) and seir modelsMustafa Agah TekindalHarun YonarAynur Yonar0Melike Tekindal1Mustafa Bahadır Çevrimli2Hasan Alkan3Zekeriya Safa İnanç4Burak Mat5Selcuk University, Science Faculty, Deparment of Statistics, Konya, TurkeyIzmir Katip Celebi University, Health Sciences Faculty, Deparment of Social Work, Izmir, TurkeySelçuk University, Veterinary Faculty, Deparment of Animal Health Economics and Management, Konya, TurkeySelçuk University, Veterinary Faculty, Deparment of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Konya, TurkeySelçuk University, Veterinary Faculty, Deparment of Animal Nutrition and Nutritional Diseases, Konya, TurkeySelçuk University, Veterinary Faculty, Deparment of Animal Health Economics and Management, Konya, Turkey<b>Aim: </b>This study is conducted to inform communities and governments about the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in selected countries: Turkey, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Italy, Russian, Canada, and Japan.<p> <b>Materials and Methods: </b>For this purpose, the numbers of the COVID-19 epidemic after the 100th case up to 7/19/2020 for selected countries have been estimated by using Curve Estimation Models, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA), Brown Linear Exponential Smoothing Method, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and SEIR Models.<p> <b>Results:</b> In the evaluations of the ARDL and SEIR models established, it is determined that France and Italy have high pandemic growth rates; while Canada has a low pandemic growth rate. It has also observed that the turning point of the pandemic occurred on the 72nd day. If there is no change in the outbreak and governments continue with the same strategies, it is predicted that the epidemic will begin again in early October 2020 (from September 21 to November 10) and will be effective for an average of 155 days (between 145 and 168 days). It is seen that the observed and predicted daily cumulative new cases are consistent.<p> <b>Conclusion:</b> As a result, it can be said that the models used in this study wellcharacterized outbreak of the COVID-19 in the eight major Western countries and Turkey.http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1325covid-19curve estimation modelsarimaexponential smoothing methodsardlseirbox-jenkins models |
| spellingShingle | Mustafa Agah Tekindal Harun Yonar Aynur Yonar Melike Tekindal Mustafa Bahadır Çevrimli Hasan Alkan Zekeriya Safa İnanç Burak Mat Analyzing covid-19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models, box-jenkins (arima), brown linear exponential smoothing method, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) and seir models Eurasian Journal of Veterinary Sciences covid-19 curve estimation models arima exponential smoothing methods ardl seir box-jenkins models |
| title | Analyzing covid-19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models, box-jenkins (arima), brown linear exponential smoothing method, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) and seir models |
| title_full | Analyzing covid-19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models, box-jenkins (arima), brown linear exponential smoothing method, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) and seir models |
| title_fullStr | Analyzing covid-19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models, box-jenkins (arima), brown linear exponential smoothing method, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) and seir models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Analyzing covid-19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models, box-jenkins (arima), brown linear exponential smoothing method, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) and seir models |
| title_short | Analyzing covid-19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models, box-jenkins (arima), brown linear exponential smoothing method, autoregressive distributed lag (ardl) and seir models |
| title_sort | analyzing covid 19 outbreak for turkey and eight country with curve estimation models box jenkins arima brown linear exponential smoothing method autoregressive distributed lag ardl and seir models |
| topic | covid-19 curve estimation models arima exponential smoothing methods ardl seir box-jenkins models |
| url | http://eurasianjvetsci.org/pdf.php3?id=1325 |
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