Influence of Satellite and Presatellite Periods on the Validation of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in Historical CMIP5 Simulations
This study assesses the ability of fourteen CMIP5 climate models to reproduce the main characteristics of major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWp) in historical simulations. Model performance is evaluated through comparisons with three reanalysis datasets, considering two periods: the satellite er...
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| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2025-05-01
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| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/16/5/628 |
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| Summary: | This study assesses the ability of fourteen CMIP5 climate models to reproduce the main characteristics of major stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWp) in historical simulations. Model performance is evaluated through comparisons with three reanalysis datasets, considering two periods: the satellite era (1979–2005) and an extended period including pre-satellite years (1958–2005). Results show that model consistency with reanalyses is significantly higher during the satellite period, with up to seven models showing no statistically significant differences (<i>p</i> > 0.05) in at least eight out of ten key diagnostics. In contrast, performance decreases in the extended period, likely due to greater observational uncertainty. A systematic overrepresentation of displacement-type events (SSW<i><sub>D</sub></i>) was found in most models, compared to the split-type dominance in reanalysis data. These findings highlight the importance of the validation period and event classification in model evaluation and establish a robust framework for future comparisons using CMIP6 models and newer reanalysis products. |
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| ISSN: | 2073-4433 |