Constructing a nomogram for short-term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a two-center retrospective study
Abstract Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a life-threatening condition with high morbidity and mortality. Early prediction of prognosis remains challenging. This study aimed to develop a nomogram incorporating clinical and inflammatory biomarkers to predict short-term outcomes in postope...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11894-y |
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| author | Yingcong Wei Xiaoyong Lin Mingjian Lin Wencai Li Honghai Luo Gang Zhu |
| author_facet | Yingcong Wei Xiaoyong Lin Mingjian Lin Wencai Li Honghai Luo Gang Zhu |
| author_sort | Yingcong Wei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a life-threatening condition with high morbidity and mortality. Early prediction of prognosis remains challenging. This study aimed to develop a nomogram incorporating clinical and inflammatory biomarkers to predict short-term outcomes in postoperative aSAH patients. Thus optimizing the intervention strategy and improve patient quality of life. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the single predictor of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Based on these independent predictors, a nomogram was created in R studio. The results showed that the aneurysmal site (3.35[95% CI, 1.05–10.66], P = 0.041), affected side (3.77[95% CI, 1.17–12.11], P = 0.026), hydrocephalus (0.03[95% CI, 0.01–0.12], P < 0.001), Hunt-Hess grade (4.13[95% CI, 1.17–14.49], P = 0.027), GCS score (4.08[95% CI, 1.02–16.25], P = 0.046), hypertension history (0.18[95% CI, 0.06–0.55], P = 0.003), WBC (3.49[95% CI, 1.06–11.56], P = 0.04), MLR (0.33[95% CI, 0.12–0.92], P = 0.035) were independent predictors. The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to existing models, with lower calibration errors (training group: 0.018; validation group: 0.052) and high AUC values (0.95 and 0.901, respectively). Given the class imbalance (84.3% of patients had favorable outcomes), sensitivity analyses were performed to verify the consistency and reliability of the findings. The nomogram constructed based on aneurysm location, affected side, presence of hydrocephalus, Hunt-Hess grade, GCS score, hypertension, WBC and MLR can enables clinicians to identify high-risk aSAH patients early, facilitating targeted interventions such as anti-inflammatory therapy or hydrocephalus management. This tool may improve resource allocation and reduce disability rates in critical care settings. Thus optimizing the intervention strategy and improve patient quality of life. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1c1eecfa0ca04e1dab43f849989a7c6d |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
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| spelling | doaj-art-1c1eecfa0ca04e1dab43f849989a7c6d2025-08-20T03:46:00ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-08-0115112010.1038/s41598-025-11894-yConstructing a nomogram for short-term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a two-center retrospective studyYingcong Wei0Xiaoyong Lin1Mingjian Lin2Wencai Li3Honghai Luo4Gang Zhu5Guangdong Medical UniversityGuangdong Medical UniversityDept. Neurosurgery, Gaozhou People’s HospitalDept. Neurosurgery, Huizhou Central People’s HospitalDept. Neurosurgery, Huizhou Central People’s HospitalDept. Neurosurgery, Huizhou Central People’s HospitalAbstract Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) is a life-threatening condition with high morbidity and mortality. Early prediction of prognosis remains challenging. This study aimed to develop a nomogram incorporating clinical and inflammatory biomarkers to predict short-term outcomes in postoperative aSAH patients. Thus optimizing the intervention strategy and improve patient quality of life. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the single predictor of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage. Based on these independent predictors, a nomogram was created in R studio. The results showed that the aneurysmal site (3.35[95% CI, 1.05–10.66], P = 0.041), affected side (3.77[95% CI, 1.17–12.11], P = 0.026), hydrocephalus (0.03[95% CI, 0.01–0.12], P < 0.001), Hunt-Hess grade (4.13[95% CI, 1.17–14.49], P = 0.027), GCS score (4.08[95% CI, 1.02–16.25], P = 0.046), hypertension history (0.18[95% CI, 0.06–0.55], P = 0.003), WBC (3.49[95% CI, 1.06–11.56], P = 0.04), MLR (0.33[95% CI, 0.12–0.92], P = 0.035) were independent predictors. The nomogram demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to existing models, with lower calibration errors (training group: 0.018; validation group: 0.052) and high AUC values (0.95 and 0.901, respectively). Given the class imbalance (84.3% of patients had favorable outcomes), sensitivity analyses were performed to verify the consistency and reliability of the findings. The nomogram constructed based on aneurysm location, affected side, presence of hydrocephalus, Hunt-Hess grade, GCS score, hypertension, WBC and MLR can enables clinicians to identify high-risk aSAH patients early, facilitating targeted interventions such as anti-inflammatory therapy or hydrocephalus management. This tool may improve resource allocation and reduce disability rates in critical care settings. Thus optimizing the intervention strategy and improve patient quality of life.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11894-yAneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhageShort-term prognosisInflammatory factorNomogram |
| spellingShingle | Yingcong Wei Xiaoyong Lin Mingjian Lin Wencai Li Honghai Luo Gang Zhu Constructing a nomogram for short-term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a two-center retrospective study Scientific Reports Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage Short-term prognosis Inflammatory factor Nomogram |
| title | Constructing a nomogram for short-term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a two-center retrospective study |
| title_full | Constructing a nomogram for short-term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a two-center retrospective study |
| title_fullStr | Constructing a nomogram for short-term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a two-center retrospective study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Constructing a nomogram for short-term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a two-center retrospective study |
| title_short | Constructing a nomogram for short-term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage: a two-center retrospective study |
| title_sort | constructing a nomogram for short term prognosis in postoperative patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage a two center retrospective study |
| topic | Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage Short-term prognosis Inflammatory factor Nomogram |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-11894-y |
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