Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goals
Abstract The carbon emission trading scheme (ETS), tradable green certificate (TGC) and green power trading (GPT) policies are vital for promoting energy transformation and carbon reduction under the dual carbon goals. However, the effects of and relationships among multiple policies urgently need t...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer Nature
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Humanities & Social Sciences Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05653-7 |
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| author | Lili Liu Tiantian Feng Cheng Zhong Mingli Cui Haoran Wang |
| author_facet | Lili Liu Tiantian Feng Cheng Zhong Mingli Cui Haoran Wang |
| author_sort | Lili Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The carbon emission trading scheme (ETS), tradable green certificate (TGC) and green power trading (GPT) policies are vital for promoting energy transformation and carbon reduction under the dual carbon goals. However, the effects of and relationships among multiple policies urgently need to be studied. In this work, the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2023 are used. First, through the multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) method, fixed effect models and mediating effect models, the carbon reduction effects of the pilot and national ETS policies, the renewable energy development effects of the TGC and GPT policies, and the multipolicy synergy effect are examined. A dual machine learning model is innovatively introduced to test the robustness of the results. Second, the slack-based measure–directional distance function–global Malmquist–Luenberger (SBM–DDF–GML) method is used to calculate the GTFP and investigate its transmission effect on policies. Finally, the impacts of the ETS, TGC and GPT policies on fossil fuel consumption are further analysed. The results indicate the following. (1) The pilot ETS policy reduces carbon emissions and carbon intensity, whereas the national ETS policy increases carbon emissions and carbon intensity in the short term. The TGC and GPT policies increase renewable energy generation and its proportion. (2) The synergy of the pilot ETS and GPT policies is the best for reducing carbon emissions and carbon intensity. The synergy among national ETS, TGC and GPT policies is optimal for developing renewable energy. In addition, there is redundancy between the TGC and GPT policies. (3) The pilot ETS policy inhibits GTFP, whereas the national ETS, TGC and GPT policies promote GTFP. The GTFP significantly reduces carbon emissions and carbon intensity and increases renewable energy generation and its proportion. (4) Both the pilot ETS and national ETS policies reduce the intensity of fossil fuel consumption. The GPT policy reduces the total level of fossil fuel consumption, whereas the TGC policy increases this level. In this work, innovative decarbonisation policies synergy pathways and insights into achieving green and low-carbon transitions in China and other developing countries are provided. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-1738d7f4892e49b8a1a2729a3e6193e1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-9992 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Springer Nature |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Humanities & Social Sciences Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-1738d7f4892e49b8a1a2729a3e6193e12025-08-20T04:01:52ZengSpringer NatureHumanities & Social Sciences Communications2662-99922025-08-0112112810.1057/s41599-025-05653-7Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goalsLili Liu0Tiantian Feng1Cheng Zhong2Mingli Cui3Haoran Wang4School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences BeijingSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences BeijingSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences BeijingSchool of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences BeijingSchool of Economics and Management, Hebei University of Science and TechnologyAbstract The carbon emission trading scheme (ETS), tradable green certificate (TGC) and green power trading (GPT) policies are vital for promoting energy transformation and carbon reduction under the dual carbon goals. However, the effects of and relationships among multiple policies urgently need to be studied. In this work, the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2023 are used. First, through the multiperiod difference-in-differences (DID) method, fixed effect models and mediating effect models, the carbon reduction effects of the pilot and national ETS policies, the renewable energy development effects of the TGC and GPT policies, and the multipolicy synergy effect are examined. A dual machine learning model is innovatively introduced to test the robustness of the results. Second, the slack-based measure–directional distance function–global Malmquist–Luenberger (SBM–DDF–GML) method is used to calculate the GTFP and investigate its transmission effect on policies. Finally, the impacts of the ETS, TGC and GPT policies on fossil fuel consumption are further analysed. The results indicate the following. (1) The pilot ETS policy reduces carbon emissions and carbon intensity, whereas the national ETS policy increases carbon emissions and carbon intensity in the short term. The TGC and GPT policies increase renewable energy generation and its proportion. (2) The synergy of the pilot ETS and GPT policies is the best for reducing carbon emissions and carbon intensity. The synergy among national ETS, TGC and GPT policies is optimal for developing renewable energy. In addition, there is redundancy between the TGC and GPT policies. (3) The pilot ETS policy inhibits GTFP, whereas the national ETS, TGC and GPT policies promote GTFP. The GTFP significantly reduces carbon emissions and carbon intensity and increases renewable energy generation and its proportion. (4) Both the pilot ETS and national ETS policies reduce the intensity of fossil fuel consumption. The GPT policy reduces the total level of fossil fuel consumption, whereas the TGC policy increases this level. In this work, innovative decarbonisation policies synergy pathways and insights into achieving green and low-carbon transitions in China and other developing countries are provided.https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05653-7 |
| spellingShingle | Lili Liu Tiantian Feng Cheng Zhong Mingli Cui Haoran Wang Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goals Humanities & Social Sciences Communications |
| title | Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goals |
| title_full | Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goals |
| title_fullStr | Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goals |
| title_full_unstemmed | Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goals |
| title_short | Synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading, tradable green certificate and green power trading policies: achieving China’s dual carbon goals |
| title_sort | synergy pathway innovation of carbon emission trading tradable green certificate and green power trading policies achieving china s dual carbon goals |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1057/s41599-025-05653-7 |
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