On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and Forecasting
Abstract Predicting the daily variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) is an ongoing scientific challenge. Various methods for predicting EPBs have been developed, however, the research community is yet to scrutinize the methods for evaluating and comparing these prediction models/techniques....
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002555 |
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| author | B. A. Carter J. L. Currie T. Dao E. Yizengaw J. Retterer M. Terkildsen K. Groves R. Caton |
| author_facet | B. A. Carter J. L. Currie T. Dao E. Yizengaw J. Retterer M. Terkildsen K. Groves R. Caton |
| author_sort | B. A. Carter |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Predicting the daily variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) is an ongoing scientific challenge. Various methods for predicting EPBs have been developed, however, the research community is yet to scrutinize the methods for evaluating and comparing these prediction models/techniques. In this study, 12 months of co‐located GPS and UHF scintillation observations spanning South America, Atlantic/Western Africa, Southeast Asia, and Pacific sectors are used to evaluate the Generalized Rayleigh‐Taylor (R‐T) growth rates calculated from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). Various assessment metrics are explored, including the use of significance testing on skill scores for threshold selection. The sensitivity of these skill scores to data set type (i.e., GPS versus UHF) and data set size (30, 50, 60, and 90 days/events) is also investigated. It is shown that between 50 and 90 days is required to achieve a statistically significant skill score. Methods for conducting model‐model comparisons are also explored, including the use of model “sufficiency.” However, it is shown that the results of model‐model comparisons must be carefully interpreted and can be heavily dependent on the data set used. It is also demonstrated that the observation data set must exhibit an appropriate level of daily EPB variability in order to assess the true strength of a given model/technique. Other limitations and considerations on assessment metrics and future challenges for EPB prediction studies are also discussed. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fb32a53aabd94cc0a39a35d02565d65c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-fb32a53aabd94cc0a39a35d02565d65c2025-01-14T16:30:54ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902020-09-01189n/an/a10.1029/2020SW002555On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and ForecastingB. A. Carter0J. L. Currie1T. Dao2E. Yizengaw3J. Retterer4M. Terkildsen5K. Groves6R. Caton7SPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSPACE Research Centre, School of Science RMIT University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSpace Science Application Laboratory The Aerospace Corporation El Segundo CA USAInstitute for Scientific Research Boston College Boston MA USASpace Weather Services Bureau of Meteorology Sydney New South Wales AustraliaInstitute for Scientific Research Boston College Boston MA USASpace Vehicles Directorate Air Force Research Laboratory Albuquerque NM USAAbstract Predicting the daily variability of Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) is an ongoing scientific challenge. Various methods for predicting EPBs have been developed, however, the research community is yet to scrutinize the methods for evaluating and comparing these prediction models/techniques. In this study, 12 months of co‐located GPS and UHF scintillation observations spanning South America, Atlantic/Western Africa, Southeast Asia, and Pacific sectors are used to evaluate the Generalized Rayleigh‐Taylor (R‐T) growth rates calculated from the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM). Various assessment metrics are explored, including the use of significance testing on skill scores for threshold selection. The sensitivity of these skill scores to data set type (i.e., GPS versus UHF) and data set size (30, 50, 60, and 90 days/events) is also investigated. It is shown that between 50 and 90 days is required to achieve a statistically significant skill score. Methods for conducting model‐model comparisons are also explored, including the use of model “sufficiency.” However, it is shown that the results of model‐model comparisons must be carefully interpreted and can be heavily dependent on the data set used. It is also demonstrated that the observation data set must exhibit an appropriate level of daily EPB variability in order to assess the true strength of a given model/technique. Other limitations and considerations on assessment metrics and future challenges for EPB prediction studies are also discussed.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002555Equatorial IonosphereScintillationsPredictionSkill scoresEquatorial Plasma BubblesGPS and UHF |
| spellingShingle | B. A. Carter J. L. Currie T. Dao E. Yizengaw J. Retterer M. Terkildsen K. Groves R. Caton On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and Forecasting Space Weather Equatorial Ionosphere Scintillations Prediction Skill scores Equatorial Plasma Bubbles GPS and UHF |
| title | On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and Forecasting |
| title_full | On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and Forecasting |
| title_short | On the Assessment of Daily Equatorial Plasma Bubble Occurrence Modeling and Forecasting |
| title_sort | on the assessment of daily equatorial plasma bubble occurrence modeling and forecasting |
| topic | Equatorial Ionosphere Scintillations Prediction Skill scores Equatorial Plasma Bubbles GPS and UHF |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002555 |
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