Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England
Abstract As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse e...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-07-01
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| Series: | Nature Communications |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5 |
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| author | Pablo N. Perez-Guzman Edward Knock Natsuko Imai Thomas Rawson Cosmo Nazzareno Santoni Joana Alcada Lilith K. Whittles Divya Thekke Kanapram Raphael Sonabend Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Wes Hinsley Richard G. FitzJohn Erik Volz Robert Verity Neil M. Ferguson Anne Cori Marc Baguelin |
| author_facet | Pablo N. Perez-Guzman Edward Knock Natsuko Imai Thomas Rawson Cosmo Nazzareno Santoni Joana Alcada Lilith K. Whittles Divya Thekke Kanapram Raphael Sonabend Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Wes Hinsley Richard G. FitzJohn Erik Volz Robert Verity Neil M. Ferguson Anne Cori Marc Baguelin |
| author_sort | Pablo N. Perez-Guzman |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England. We quantified the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), therapeutics, and vaccination on virus transmission and severity. Each successive variant had a higher intrinsic transmissibility. Omicron (BA.1) had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.4 (95% credible interval (CrI) 7.8-9.1). Varying levels of NPIs were crucial in controlling virus transmission until population immunity accumulated. Immune escape properties of Omicron decreased effective levels of immunity in the population by a third. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, we found Alpha had the highest basic infection fatality ratio (3.0%, 95% CrI 2.8-3.2), followed by Delta (2.1%, 95% CrI 1.9–2.4), Wildtype (1.2%, 95% CrI 1.1–1.2), and Omicron (0.7%, 95% CrI 0.6-0.8). Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance. Long-term strategies for monitoring and maintaining effective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are critical to inform the role of NPIs to effectively manage future variants with potentially higher intrinsic transmissibility and severe outcomes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fb2599b5b1f643219a6bb0460b67c723 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-1723 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nature Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-fb2599b5b1f643219a6bb0460b67c7232025-01-12T12:29:27ZengNature PortfolioNature Communications2041-17232023-07-011411910.1038/s41467-023-39661-5Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in EnglandPablo N. Perez-Guzman0Edward Knock1Natsuko Imai2Thomas Rawson3Cosmo Nazzareno Santoni4Joana Alcada5Lilith K. Whittles6Divya Thekke Kanapram7Raphael Sonabend8Katy A. M. Gaythorpe9Wes Hinsley10Richard G. FitzJohn11Erik Volz12Robert Verity13Neil M. Ferguson14Anne Cori15Marc Baguelin16MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonAdult Intensive Care Unit, Royal Brompton HospitalMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis and Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), School of Public Health, Imperial College LondonAbstract As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England. We quantified the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), therapeutics, and vaccination on virus transmission and severity. Each successive variant had a higher intrinsic transmissibility. Omicron (BA.1) had the highest basic reproduction number at 8.4 (95% credible interval (CrI) 7.8-9.1). Varying levels of NPIs were crucial in controlling virus transmission until population immunity accumulated. Immune escape properties of Omicron decreased effective levels of immunity in the population by a third. Furthermore, in contrast to previous studies, we found Alpha had the highest basic infection fatality ratio (3.0%, 95% CrI 2.8-3.2), followed by Delta (2.1%, 95% CrI 1.9–2.4), Wildtype (1.2%, 95% CrI 1.1–1.2), and Omicron (0.7%, 95% CrI 0.6-0.8). Our findings highlight the importance of continued surveillance. Long-term strategies for monitoring and maintaining effective immunity against SARS-CoV-2 are critical to inform the role of NPIs to effectively manage future variants with potentially higher intrinsic transmissibility and severe outcomes.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5 |
| spellingShingle | Pablo N. Perez-Guzman Edward Knock Natsuko Imai Thomas Rawson Cosmo Nazzareno Santoni Joana Alcada Lilith K. Whittles Divya Thekke Kanapram Raphael Sonabend Katy A. M. Gaythorpe Wes Hinsley Richard G. FitzJohn Erik Volz Robert Verity Neil M. Ferguson Anne Cori Marc Baguelin Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England Nature Communications |
| title | Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England |
| title_full | Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England |
| title_fullStr | Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England |
| title_full_unstemmed | Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England |
| title_short | Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England |
| title_sort | epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of sars cov 2 in england |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39661-5 |
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