L’Indicateur du Climat des Affaires : reflet fidèle de l’économie martiniquaise ?
This paper is the first attempt to measure the statistical relationship between IEDOM’s business climate indicator (ICA) and the GDP growth rate in Martinique directly. In this contribution, we present the methodology behind the construction of the ICA, before performing a regression of the growth r...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Université des Antilles
2019-11-01
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| Series: | Études Caribéennes |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://journals.openedition.org/etudescaribeennes/16226 |
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| Summary: | This paper is the first attempt to measure the statistical relationship between IEDOM’s business climate indicator (ICA) and the GDP growth rate in Martinique directly. In this contribution, we present the methodology behind the construction of the ICA, before performing a regression of the growth rate of GDP on the ICA on annual data using an autoregressive vector model (VAR). Despite the small sample size, the results are encouraging. In particular, we detect a causality relationship between the ICA and the GDP growth rate, justifying the use of the ICA as a coincident indicator of the economic activity. Eventually, we discuss the possibility of improving our results by specifying a panel VAR using ICAs from other overseas territories or by quarteralising GDP data using numerical methods. |
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| ISSN: | 1779-0980 1961-859X |