More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize
Realism about productivity gains in agriculture and water is critical to understand if the world can feed itself while protecting nature. We use government-reported data to review progress over 2000–2020 compared to projections for irrigated and rainfed agriculture and trade. Our results over the pe...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Agricultural Water Management |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424005651 |
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| _version_ | 1841557062456180736 |
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| author | Chris Seijger Anton Urfels Maria Christoforidou Petra Hellegers Gerlo Borghuis Simon Langan Gerardo van Halsema |
| author_facet | Chris Seijger Anton Urfels Maria Christoforidou Petra Hellegers Gerlo Borghuis Simon Langan Gerardo van Halsema |
| author_sort | Chris Seijger |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Realism about productivity gains in agriculture and water is critical to understand if the world can feed itself while protecting nature. We use government-reported data to review progress over 2000–2020 compared to projections for irrigated and rainfed agriculture and trade. Our results over the period 2000–2020 show that productivity gains largely did not materialize. Instead of consolidating cereal production and trade in favourable regions like North America, Europe and Russia, their arable land declined by 35 million hectares, while arable land expanded by 74 million hectares in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Asia. Likewise, water productivity gains did not materialize, as photosynthesis breakthroughs did not occur. Land productivity (yield) gains were projected to rise 21–61 %, making the observed increase in cereal yields of 31 % a slight one. This puts the world on the path of using steadily more land and water to produce food and feed, at the expense of nature. Solutions to veer off this path include reducing food demand (including dietary change), stabilising rainfed agriculture and broadening the crop genetic resources base. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-fa57c9675cc04c23932cad1db302e29c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1873-2283 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agricultural Water Management |
| spelling | doaj-art-fa57c9675cc04c23932cad1db302e29c2025-01-07T04:16:47ZengElsevierAgricultural Water Management1873-22832025-02-01307109229More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materializeChris Seijger0Anton Urfels1Maria Christoforidou2Petra Hellegers3Gerlo Borghuis4Simon Langan5Gerardo van Halsema6Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands; Corresponding author.Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the Netherlands; IRRI, International Rice Research Institute, Los Baños, Philippines; Cornell University, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Ithaca, NY, United States of AmericaWater Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsWater Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsWater Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsIWMI, The International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka; IIASA, International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Vienna, AustriaWater Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, the NetherlandsRealism about productivity gains in agriculture and water is critical to understand if the world can feed itself while protecting nature. We use government-reported data to review progress over 2000–2020 compared to projections for irrigated and rainfed agriculture and trade. Our results over the period 2000–2020 show that productivity gains largely did not materialize. Instead of consolidating cereal production and trade in favourable regions like North America, Europe and Russia, their arable land declined by 35 million hectares, while arable land expanded by 74 million hectares in Africa, Latin America and Eastern Asia. Likewise, water productivity gains did not materialize, as photosynthesis breakthroughs did not occur. Land productivity (yield) gains were projected to rise 21–61 %, making the observed increase in cereal yields of 31 % a slight one. This puts the world on the path of using steadily more land and water to produce food and feed, at the expense of nature. Solutions to veer off this path include reducing food demand (including dietary change), stabilising rainfed agriculture and broadening the crop genetic resources base.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424005651Comprehensive AssessmentCritical analysesFAOSTATPlanetary healthReorientationWater accounting |
| spellingShingle | Chris Seijger Anton Urfels Maria Christoforidou Petra Hellegers Gerlo Borghuis Simon Langan Gerardo van Halsema More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize Agricultural Water Management Comprehensive Assessment Critical analyses FAOSTAT Planetary health Reorientation Water accounting |
| title | More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize |
| title_full | More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize |
| title_fullStr | More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize |
| title_full_unstemmed | More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize |
| title_short | More food, but less land and water for nature: Why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize |
| title_sort | more food but less land and water for nature why agricultural productivity gains did not materialize |
| topic | Comprehensive Assessment Critical analyses FAOSTAT Planetary health Reorientation Water accounting |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378377424005651 |
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