Nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using SHAP

Abstract Polycentric urban development is promoted by urban planners and policy makers for its perceived benefits of alleviating urban issues. Theoretically, a polycentric urban structure is formed when different demographic groups present a collection of diverse and unique housing location preferen...

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Main Authors: Yichen Ruan, Xiaoyi Zhang, Mingyu Zhang, Feiyang Sun, Qiuxiao Chen
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2024-12-01
Series:Scientific Reports
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81076-9
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author Yichen Ruan
Xiaoyi Zhang
Mingyu Zhang
Feiyang Sun
Qiuxiao Chen
author_facet Yichen Ruan
Xiaoyi Zhang
Mingyu Zhang
Feiyang Sun
Qiuxiao Chen
author_sort Yichen Ruan
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Polycentric urban development is promoted by urban planners and policy makers for its perceived benefits of alleviating urban issues. Theoretically, a polycentric urban structure is formed when different demographic groups present a collection of diverse and unique housing location preferences. Yet, only limited empirical studies have fully captured the complex effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structures. Our study utilizes detailed demographic data and employs interpretable machine learning models to elucidate the nonlinear and synergistic relationship between demographic characteristics and the urban polycentric structure in the context of a city of 10 million population in China. When characterizing urban centers, the three most important demographic groups are young females, senior married couples, and middle-aged single individuals with basic education. Each urban center presents distinctive demographic compositions; for instance, middle-aged married individuals exerting a stronger influence in certain contexts, whereas in senior resident groups, married individuals have a more pronounced impact. Spatial heterogeneity is observed in the demographic profiles of urban centers; for instance, primary central cores are predominantly young, single females, whereas peripheral and secondary centers have stronger presence of highly educated residents.
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spelling doaj-art-f9e02d17c8504ecf94a9f195b10c46272024-12-08T12:26:11ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-12-0114111410.1038/s41598-024-81076-9Nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using SHAPYichen Ruan0Xiaoyi Zhang1Mingyu Zhang2Feiyang Sun3Qiuxiao Chen4School of Spatial Planning and Design, Hangzhou City UniversitySchool of Spatial Planning and Design, Hangzhou City UniversityDepartment of Regional and Urban Planning, Zhejiang UniversityDepartment of Urban Studies and Planning, University of California San DiegoSchool of Spatial Planning and Design, Hangzhou City UniversityAbstract Polycentric urban development is promoted by urban planners and policy makers for its perceived benefits of alleviating urban issues. Theoretically, a polycentric urban structure is formed when different demographic groups present a collection of diverse and unique housing location preferences. Yet, only limited empirical studies have fully captured the complex effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structures. Our study utilizes detailed demographic data and employs interpretable machine learning models to elucidate the nonlinear and synergistic relationship between demographic characteristics and the urban polycentric structure in the context of a city of 10 million population in China. When characterizing urban centers, the three most important demographic groups are young females, senior married couples, and middle-aged single individuals with basic education. Each urban center presents distinctive demographic compositions; for instance, middle-aged married individuals exerting a stronger influence in certain contexts, whereas in senior resident groups, married individuals have a more pronounced impact. Spatial heterogeneity is observed in the demographic profiles of urban centers; for instance, primary central cores are predominantly young, single females, whereas peripheral and secondary centers have stronger presence of highly educated residents.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81076-9Demographic characteristicsNonlinear effectsSynergistic effectsUrban polycentric structureExplainable machine learning
spellingShingle Yichen Ruan
Xiaoyi Zhang
Mingyu Zhang
Feiyang Sun
Qiuxiao Chen
Nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using SHAP
Scientific Reports
Demographic characteristics
Nonlinear effects
Synergistic effects
Urban polycentric structure
Explainable machine learning
title Nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using SHAP
title_full Nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using SHAP
title_fullStr Nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using SHAP
title_full_unstemmed Nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using SHAP
title_short Nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using SHAP
title_sort nonlinear and synergistic effects of demographic characteristics on urban polycentric structure using shap
topic Demographic characteristics
Nonlinear effects
Synergistic effects
Urban polycentric structure
Explainable machine learning
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81076-9
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AT mingyuzhang nonlinearandsynergisticeffectsofdemographiccharacteristicsonurbanpolycentricstructureusingshap
AT feiyangsun nonlinearandsynergisticeffectsofdemographiccharacteristicsonurbanpolycentricstructureusingshap
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