Modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivatives
Abstract In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed with classical and fractional derivatives to simulate the virus spread that causes Monkey pox disease among rodents and human populations. The model is expressed as a nonlinear system of differential equations by considering the total populati...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Springer
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Discover Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00827-9 |
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| author | Shakeel Ahmed Saif Ullah Faiza tul Rasool |
| author_facet | Shakeel Ahmed Saif Ullah Faiza tul Rasool |
| author_sort | Shakeel Ahmed |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed with classical and fractional derivatives to simulate the virus spread that causes Monkey pox disease among rodents and human populations. The model is expressed as a nonlinear system of differential equations by considering the total population as ten compartments. For the current epidemic system, the reproduction number, $$\:\:{R}_{0}$$ , is determined using the next-generation matrix technique. Furthermore, the theoretical analysis of the model includes two equilibria, namely endemic and disease-free, which we established using conventional methods and a corresponding stability analysis is performed. The sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most effective parameters in disease transmission. A parameter fitting method is used to evaluate the model predictions. The observed and predicted cases were found to be in good agreement with minimum error margins. The disease transmission can be controlled by reducing contacts among humans and by limiting growth of rodents. Finally, numerical simulations are presented by utilizing the powerful platform of MATLAB which gives more insight to the system behavior. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f7f6674dba594758966072a99c26b3f5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 3005-0774 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Discover Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-f7f6674dba594758966072a99c26b3f52025-08-20T03:45:45ZengSpringerDiscover Public Health3005-07742025-07-0122112110.1186/s12982-025-00827-9Modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivativesShakeel Ahmed0Saif Ullah1Faiza tul Rasool2Department of Mathematics, Government College UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, Government College UniversityDepartment of Mathematics, University of SialkotAbstract In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed with classical and fractional derivatives to simulate the virus spread that causes Monkey pox disease among rodents and human populations. The model is expressed as a nonlinear system of differential equations by considering the total population as ten compartments. For the current epidemic system, the reproduction number, $$\:\:{R}_{0}$$ , is determined using the next-generation matrix technique. Furthermore, the theoretical analysis of the model includes two equilibria, namely endemic and disease-free, which we established using conventional methods and a corresponding stability analysis is performed. The sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the most effective parameters in disease transmission. A parameter fitting method is used to evaluate the model predictions. The observed and predicted cases were found to be in good agreement with minimum error margins. The disease transmission can be controlled by reducing contacts among humans and by limiting growth of rodents. Finally, numerical simulations are presented by utilizing the powerful platform of MATLAB which gives more insight to the system behavior.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00827-9Fractional derivativeMathematical modelingMonkey poxNumerical simulationStability |
| spellingShingle | Shakeel Ahmed Saif Ullah Faiza tul Rasool Modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivatives Discover Public Health Fractional derivative Mathematical modeling Monkey pox Numerical simulation Stability |
| title | Modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivatives |
| title_full | Modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivatives |
| title_fullStr | Modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivatives |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivatives |
| title_short | Modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivatives |
| title_sort | modeling the dynamics of monkeypox epidemic via classical and fractional derivatives |
| topic | Fractional derivative Mathematical modeling Monkey pox Numerical simulation Stability |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-025-00827-9 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT shakeelahmed modelingthedynamicsofmonkeypoxepidemicviaclassicalandfractionalderivatives AT saifullah modelingthedynamicsofmonkeypoxepidemicviaclassicalandfractionalderivatives AT faizatulrasool modelingthedynamicsofmonkeypoxepidemicviaclassicalandfractionalderivatives |