Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis
Introduction: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method. Methodology: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by “fitdist...
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The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries
2021-03-01
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| Series: | Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
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| Online Access: | https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/14025 |
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| author | Tianchen Zhang Sheng Ding Zhili Zeng Huijian Cheng Chengfeng Zhang Xiangqun Mao Huanhong Pan Guanghui Xia Daping Che |
| author_facet | Tianchen Zhang Sheng Ding Zhili Zeng Huijian Cheng Chengfeng Zhang Xiangqun Mao Huanhong Pan Guanghui Xia Daping Che |
| author_sort | Tianchen Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
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Introduction: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method.
Methodology: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by “fitdistrplus” package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by “meta” package of R software.
Results: Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR: 3.8 – 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR: 3.6 – 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR: 1.1 – 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI: 5.75 – 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI: 4.73 – 5.57), respectively.
Conclusions: Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2.
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| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f7bf0f33e70d4a32be8e8725789ddff1 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1972-2680 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | The Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Infection in Developing Countries |
| spelling | doaj-art-f7bf0f33e70d4a32be8e8725789ddff12025-08-20T03:52:39ZengThe Journal of Infection in Developing CountriesJournal of Infection in Developing Countries1972-26802021-03-01150310.3855/jidc.14025Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-AnalysisTianchen Zhang0Sheng Ding1Zhili Zeng2Huijian Cheng3Chengfeng Zhang4Xiangqun Mao 5Huanhong Pan 6Guanghui Xia7Daping Che8Emergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, ChinaEmergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, ChinaEmergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, ChinaEmergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, ChinaEmergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, ChinaEmergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, ChinaEmergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, ChinaEmergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, ChinaEmergency Office and Acute Infectious Disease Prevention Institute, Jiangxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China Introduction: This paper aims to estimate the incubation period and serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 based on confirmed cases in Jiangxi Province of China and meta-analysis method. Methodology: Distributions of incubation period and serial interval of Jiangxi epidemic data were fitted by “fitdistrplus” package of R software, and the meta-analysis was conducted by “meta” package of R software. Results: Based on the epidemic data of Jiangxi, we found the median days of incubation period and serial interval were 5.9 days [IQR: 3.8 – 8.6] and 5.7 days [IQR: 3.6 – 8.3], respectively. The median days of the infectivity period at pre-symptomatic was 1.7 days [IQR: 1.1 – 2.4]. The meta-analysis based on 64 papers showed the pooled means of the incubation period and serial interval were 6.25 days (95% CrI: 5.75 – 6.75) and 5.15 days (95% CrI: 4.73 – 5.57), respectively. Conclusions: Our results contribute to a better understanding of COVID-19 and provide useful parameters for modelling the dynamics of disease transmission. The serial interval is shorter than the incubation period, which indicates that the patients are infectious at pre-symptomatic period, and isolation of detected cases alone is likely to be difficult to halt the spread of SARS-CoV-2. https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/14025COVID-19SARS-CoV-2incubation periodserial intervalmeta-analysis |
| spellingShingle | Tianchen Zhang Sheng Ding Zhili Zeng Huijian Cheng Chengfeng Zhang Xiangqun Mao Huanhong Pan Guanghui Xia Daping Che Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis Journal of Infection in Developing Countries COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 incubation period serial interval meta-analysis |
| title | Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis |
| title_full | Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis |
| title_short | Estimation of Incubation Period and Serial Interval for SARS-CoV-2 in Jiangxi, China, and an Updated Meta-Analysis |
| title_sort | estimation of incubation period and serial interval for sars cov 2 in jiangxi china and an updated meta analysis |
| topic | COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2 incubation period serial interval meta-analysis |
| url | https://jidc.org/index.php/journal/article/view/14025 |
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