Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models
Abstract Prediction of ionospheric state is a critical space weather problem. We expand on our previous research of medium‐range ionospheric forecasts and present new results on evaluating prediction capabilities of three physics‐based ionosphere‐thermosphere models (Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrod...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2020-09-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002452 |
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| author | O. Verkhoglyadova X. Meng A. J. Mannucci J.‐S. Shim R. McGranaghan |
| author_facet | O. Verkhoglyadova X. Meng A. J. Mannucci J.‐S. Shim R. McGranaghan |
| author_sort | O. Verkhoglyadova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Prediction of ionospheric state is a critical space weather problem. We expand on our previous research of medium‐range ionospheric forecasts and present new results on evaluating prediction capabilities of three physics‐based ionosphere‐thermosphere models (Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model, TIE‐GCM; Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model, CTIPe; and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model, GITM). The focus of our study is understanding how current modeling approaches may predict the global ionosphere for geomagnetic storms (as studied through 35 storms during 2000–2016). Prediction approach uses physics‐based modeling without any manual model adjustment, quality control, or selection of the results. Our goal is to understand to what extent current physics‐based modeling can be used in total electron content (TEC) prediction and explore uncertainties of these prediction efforts with multiday lead times. The ionosphere‐thermosphere model runs are driven by actual interplanetary conditions, whether those data come from real‐time measurements or predicted values themselves. These model runs were performed by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)‐produced global ionospheric maps (GIMs) were used to validate model TEC estimates. We utilize the True Skill Statistic (TSS) metric for the TEC prediction evaluation, noting that this is but one metric to assess predictive skill and that complete evaluations require combinations of such metrics. The meanings of contingency table elements for the prediction performance are analyzed in the context of ionosphere modeling. Prediction success is between about 0.2 and 0.5 for weak ionospheric disturbances and decreases for strong disturbances. We evaluate the prediction of TEC decreases and increases. Our results indicate that physics‐based modeling during storms shows promise in TEC prediction with multiday lead time. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f74099a950914213bb55bbf5eb60a6c6 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-09-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-f74099a950914213bb55bbf5eb60a6c62025-01-14T16:30:54ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902020-09-01189n/an/a10.1029/2020SW002452Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere ModelsO. Verkhoglyadova0X. Meng1A. J. Mannucci2J.‐S. Shim3R. McGranaghan4Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USAJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USAJet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Pasadena CA USACCMC Catholic University of America Washington DC USAASTRA, LLC Louisville CO USAAbstract Prediction of ionospheric state is a critical space weather problem. We expand on our previous research of medium‐range ionospheric forecasts and present new results on evaluating prediction capabilities of three physics‐based ionosphere‐thermosphere models (Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model, TIE‐GCM; Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model, CTIPe; and Global Ionosphere Thermosphere Model, GITM). The focus of our study is understanding how current modeling approaches may predict the global ionosphere for geomagnetic storms (as studied through 35 storms during 2000–2016). Prediction approach uses physics‐based modeling without any manual model adjustment, quality control, or selection of the results. Our goal is to understand to what extent current physics‐based modeling can be used in total electron content (TEC) prediction and explore uncertainties of these prediction efforts with multiday lead times. The ionosphere‐thermosphere model runs are driven by actual interplanetary conditions, whether those data come from real‐time measurements or predicted values themselves. These model runs were performed by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)‐produced global ionospheric maps (GIMs) were used to validate model TEC estimates. We utilize the True Skill Statistic (TSS) metric for the TEC prediction evaluation, noting that this is but one metric to assess predictive skill and that complete evaluations require combinations of such metrics. The meanings of contingency table elements for the prediction performance are analyzed in the context of ionosphere modeling. Prediction success is between about 0.2 and 0.5 for weak ionospheric disturbances and decreases for strong disturbances. We evaluate the prediction of TEC decreases and increases. Our results indicate that physics‐based modeling during storms shows promise in TEC prediction with multiday lead time.https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002452space weatherionospherepredictionmodelinggeomagnetic storms |
| spellingShingle | O. Verkhoglyadova X. Meng A. J. Mannucci J.‐S. Shim R. McGranaghan Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models Space Weather space weather ionosphere prediction modeling geomagnetic storms |
| title | Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models |
| title_full | Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models |
| title_short | Evaluation of Total Electron Content Prediction Using Three Ionosphere‐Thermosphere Models |
| title_sort | evaluation of total electron content prediction using three ionosphere thermosphere models |
| topic | space weather ionosphere prediction modeling geomagnetic storms |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2020SW002452 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT overkhoglyadova evaluationoftotalelectroncontentpredictionusingthreeionospherethermospheremodels AT xmeng evaluationoftotalelectroncontentpredictionusingthreeionospherethermospheremodels AT ajmannucci evaluationoftotalelectroncontentpredictionusingthreeionospherethermospheremodels AT jsshim evaluationoftotalelectroncontentpredictionusingthreeionospherethermospheremodels AT rmcgranaghan evaluationoftotalelectroncontentpredictionusingthreeionospherethermospheremodels |