Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type

Climate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitati...

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Main Authors: Lunche Wang, Danhua Zhong, Xinxin Chen, Zigeng Niu, Qian Cao
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2024-12-01
Series:Geography and Sustainability
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000622
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author Lunche Wang
Danhua Zhong
Xinxin Chen
Zigeng Niu
Qian Cao
author_facet Lunche Wang
Danhua Zhong
Xinxin Chen
Zigeng Niu
Qian Cao
author_sort Lunche Wang
collection DOAJ
description Climate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitation on two rice cropping systems, including single rice and double rice (early and late rice) was evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) the Northeast region was expected to undergo the greatest warming of 2.03–2.48 °C, and future climate conditions would be dominated by Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs across all regions. (2) Climate change would significantly shorten anthesis days after sowing and maturity days after sowing of single rice by 6–12 days and 9–24 days, with little change observed for late rice (< 1 day). Late rice yield suffered more from climate change compared to single and early rice yield, declining by 8.8 %–16.13 %. (3) Different CYTs exhibited varying impacts on rice yields. Yields were projected to decrease by approximately 4.765 % to 18.645 % in Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs. Conversely, the Northeast region was anticipated to experience an increase in yield. (4) Relationships between rice yield and meteorological factors varied by region, variety, and CYT. Among the nine CYTs, high killing degree days, mean daily temperature, mean solar radiation and warm spell duration index were the main factors influencing changes in rice yield, explaining nearly 80 % of yield change. Our results would help to develop adaptation strategies in different regions and rice cropping systems.
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spelling doaj-art-f53421d2fa1244ca93c4717b33d767242024-12-18T08:53:23ZengElsevierGeography and Sustainability2666-68392024-12-0154548560Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year typeLunche Wang0Danhua Zhong1Xinxin Chen2Zigeng Niu3Qian Cao4Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; Hubei Luojia Laboratory, Wuhan 430079, China; Corresponding author.Hubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaHubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaHubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaHubei Key Laboratory of Regional Ecology and Environmental Change, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China; State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, ChinaClimate change threatens China’s rice production, making it crucial to assess the impact of climate change and climate year type (CYT) on rice production across regions to safeguard food security. The impact of climate change under nine CYTs with different combinations of temperature and precipitation on two rice cropping systems, including single rice and double rice (early and late rice) was evaluated. The results indicate that: (1) the Northeast region was expected to undergo the greatest warming of 2.03–2.48 °C, and future climate conditions would be dominated by Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs across all regions. (2) Climate change would significantly shorten anthesis days after sowing and maturity days after sowing of single rice by 6–12 days and 9–24 days, with little change observed for late rice (< 1 day). Late rice yield suffered more from climate change compared to single and early rice yield, declining by 8.8 %–16.13 %. (3) Different CYTs exhibited varying impacts on rice yields. Yields were projected to decrease by approximately 4.765 % to 18.645 % in Warm-Humid, Warm-Normal, and Warm-Dry CYTs. Conversely, the Northeast region was anticipated to experience an increase in yield. (4) Relationships between rice yield and meteorological factors varied by region, variety, and CYT. Among the nine CYTs, high killing degree days, mean daily temperature, mean solar radiation and warm spell duration index were the main factors influencing changes in rice yield, explaining nearly 80 % of yield change. Our results would help to develop adaptation strategies in different regions and rice cropping systems.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000622RiceYieldClimate year typeClimate changeChina
spellingShingle Lunche Wang
Danhua Zhong
Xinxin Chen
Zigeng Niu
Qian Cao
Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type
Geography and Sustainability
Rice
Yield
Climate year type
Climate change
China
title Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type
title_full Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type
title_fullStr Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type
title_full_unstemmed Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type
title_short Impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in China: Analysis based on climate year type
title_sort impact of climate change on rice growth and yield in china analysis based on climate year type
topic Rice
Yield
Climate year type
Climate change
China
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000622
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AT zigengniu impactofclimatechangeonricegrowthandyieldinchinaanalysisbasedonclimateyeartype
AT qiancao impactofclimatechangeonricegrowthandyieldinchinaanalysisbasedonclimateyeartype