How many human pathogens are there in Laos? An estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trends
Objective The emergence of infectious diseases pose major global health threats. Estimates of total in-country human pathogen diversity, and insights as to how and when species were described through history, could be used to estimate the probability of new pathogen discoveries. Data from the Lao Pe...
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BMJ Publishing Group
2020-10-01
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| Series: | BMJ Global Health |
| Online Access: | https://gh.bmj.com/content/5/10/e002972.full |
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| author | Paul N Newton Madeleine Claire Clarkson Ricardo Aguas Kathryn Sweet Tamalee Roberts Michel Strobel |
| author_facet | Paul N Newton Madeleine Claire Clarkson Ricardo Aguas Kathryn Sweet Tamalee Roberts Michel Strobel |
| author_sort | Paul N Newton |
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| description | Objective The emergence of infectious diseases pose major global health threats. Estimates of total in-country human pathogen diversity, and insights as to how and when species were described through history, could be used to estimate the probability of new pathogen discoveries. Data from the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos) were used in this proof-of-concept study to estimate national human pathogen diversity and to examine historical discovery rate drivers.Methods A systematic survey of the French and English scientific and grey literature of pathogen description in Laos between 1874 and 2017 was conducted. The first descriptions of each known human pathogen in Laos were coded according to the diagnostic evidence available. Cumulative frequency of discovery across time informed the rate of discovery. Four distinct periods of health systems development in Laos were identified prospectively and juxtaposed to the unmodelled rate of discovery. A model with a time-varying rate of discovery was fitted to these data using a Markov-Chain- Monte-Carlo technique.Results From 6456 pathogen descriptions, 245 discoveries of known human pathogens in Laos, including repeat discoveries using different grades of evidence, were identified. The models estimate that the Laos human pathogen species diversity in 2017 is between 169 and 206. During the last decade, there has been a 33-fold increase in the discovery rate coinciding with the strengthening of medical research and microbiology.Conclusion Discovery curves can be used to model and estimate country-level human pathogen diversity present in a territory. Combining this with historical assessment improves the understanding of the factors affecting local pathogen discovery.PROSPERO registration number A protocol of this work was registered on PROSPERO (ID:CRD42016046728). |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f4d5f516d9574e0d8abf149f0557ca08 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2059-7908 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2020-10-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
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| series | BMJ Global Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-f4d5f516d9574e0d8abf149f0557ca082024-12-11T18:15:09ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Global Health2059-79082020-10-0151010.1136/bmjgh-2020-002972How many human pathogens are there in Laos? An estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trendsPaul N Newton0Madeleine Claire Clarkson1Ricardo Aguas2Kathryn Sweet3Tamalee Roberts4Michel Strobel5Lao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Trust Research Unit, Microbiology Laboratory, Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Lao People’s Democratic RepublicDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UKNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford Centre for Tropical Medicine and Global Health, Oxford, Oxfordshire, UKIndependant researcher, Vientiane, Lao People`s Democratic RepublicLao-Oxford-Mahosot Hospital-Wellcome Trust Research Unit (LOMWRU), Mahosot Hospital, Vientiane, Lao People`s Democratic RepublicIndependant researcher, Toulouse, FranceObjective The emergence of infectious diseases pose major global health threats. Estimates of total in-country human pathogen diversity, and insights as to how and when species were described through history, could be used to estimate the probability of new pathogen discoveries. Data from the Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Laos) were used in this proof-of-concept study to estimate national human pathogen diversity and to examine historical discovery rate drivers.Methods A systematic survey of the French and English scientific and grey literature of pathogen description in Laos between 1874 and 2017 was conducted. The first descriptions of each known human pathogen in Laos were coded according to the diagnostic evidence available. Cumulative frequency of discovery across time informed the rate of discovery. Four distinct periods of health systems development in Laos were identified prospectively and juxtaposed to the unmodelled rate of discovery. A model with a time-varying rate of discovery was fitted to these data using a Markov-Chain- Monte-Carlo technique.Results From 6456 pathogen descriptions, 245 discoveries of known human pathogens in Laos, including repeat discoveries using different grades of evidence, were identified. The models estimate that the Laos human pathogen species diversity in 2017 is between 169 and 206. During the last decade, there has been a 33-fold increase in the discovery rate coinciding with the strengthening of medical research and microbiology.Conclusion Discovery curves can be used to model and estimate country-level human pathogen diversity present in a territory. Combining this with historical assessment improves the understanding of the factors affecting local pathogen discovery.PROSPERO registration number A protocol of this work was registered on PROSPERO (ID:CRD42016046728).https://gh.bmj.com/content/5/10/e002972.full |
| spellingShingle | Paul N Newton Madeleine Claire Clarkson Ricardo Aguas Kathryn Sweet Tamalee Roberts Michel Strobel How many human pathogens are there in Laos? An estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trends BMJ Global Health |
| title | How many human pathogens are there in Laos? An estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trends |
| title_full | How many human pathogens are there in Laos? An estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trends |
| title_fullStr | How many human pathogens are there in Laos? An estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trends |
| title_full_unstemmed | How many human pathogens are there in Laos? An estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trends |
| title_short | How many human pathogens are there in Laos? An estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trends |
| title_sort | how many human pathogens are there in laos an estimate of national human pathogen diversity and analysis of historical trends |
| url | https://gh.bmj.com/content/5/10/e002972.full |
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