Study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wenzhou

Based on the perspective of conflict of interest between low-carbon ecology and economic and social development, this study explores the change mechanism of land use cover change (LUCC) and carbon storage (CS) in the context of “Dual-Carbon” goal and territorial spatial ecological governance, which...

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Main Authors: Quan Wei, Huang Xuankai, Xu Gang, Hao Jun, Lv Kangting, Jiang Xiaomin
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: De Gruyter 2024-11-01
Series:Open Geosciences
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Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0735
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author Quan Wei
Huang Xuankai
Xu Gang
Hao Jun
Lv Kangting
Jiang Xiaomin
author_facet Quan Wei
Huang Xuankai
Xu Gang
Hao Jun
Lv Kangting
Jiang Xiaomin
author_sort Quan Wei
collection DOAJ
description Based on the perspective of conflict of interest between low-carbon ecology and economic and social development, this study explores the change mechanism of land use cover change (LUCC) and carbon storage (CS) in the context of “Dual-Carbon” goal and territorial spatial ecological governance, which is of great significance to optimize the construction path of “Dual-Carbon” goal and formulate low-carbon, ecological, high-quality, and sustainable economic and social policies in the urban areas. An integrated framework based on the System Dynamics model, the Patch Generation Land Simulation model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model was constructed to dynamically simulate the LUCC demand and CS of Wenzhou under four scenarios in 2035, and to analyze the spatial evolution mechanisms of LUCC and CS. The main results of the study show that in the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) and High-speed Urbanization Scenario (HUS), the expansion mechanism is similar, and the area of woodland decreases greatly, which is mainly caused by the rapid expansion of construction land and cultivated land. Under Low-carbon and High-quality Development Scenario (LHDS) and Ecological Safety Governance Scenario (ESGS), woodland and grassland increased significantly, mainly because low-carbon and ecological governance policies strengthened ecological land protection and limited construction land control. By 2035, the prediction results show that LHDS has the highest CS (2.231 × 105 kt), followed by ESGS (2.226 × 105 kt), NDS (2.191 × 105 kt), and HUS (2.142 × 105 kt). The range of increase and decrease was 0.189, −0.149, −1.676, −3.692%, and only in LHDS, CS increased by 42.05 kt. Therefore, in order to achieve the “Dual-Carbon” goal, Wenzhou needs to prioritize the combination of LHDS and ESGS to formulate relevant policies.
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publishDate 2024-11-01
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spelling doaj-art-f3b9e84c289047edafad2a8d87bb2c6b2024-11-25T11:17:50ZengDe GruyterOpen Geosciences2391-54472024-11-0116133345310.1515/geo-2022-0735Study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios: A case study of WenzhouQuan Wei0Huang Xuankai1Xu Gang2Hao Jun3Lv Kangting4Jiang Xiaomin5Zhejiang College of Security Technology, Wenzhou325016, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou, 310023, ChinaZhejiang College of Security Technology, Wenzhou325016, ChinaZhejiang College of Security Technology, Wenzhou325016, ChinaWenzhou Future City Research Institute, Wenzhou325000, ChinaSchool of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University of Science and Technology, Hangzhou, 310023, ChinaBased on the perspective of conflict of interest between low-carbon ecology and economic and social development, this study explores the change mechanism of land use cover change (LUCC) and carbon storage (CS) in the context of “Dual-Carbon” goal and territorial spatial ecological governance, which is of great significance to optimize the construction path of “Dual-Carbon” goal and formulate low-carbon, ecological, high-quality, and sustainable economic and social policies in the urban areas. An integrated framework based on the System Dynamics model, the Patch Generation Land Simulation model, and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model was constructed to dynamically simulate the LUCC demand and CS of Wenzhou under four scenarios in 2035, and to analyze the spatial evolution mechanisms of LUCC and CS. The main results of the study show that in the Natural Development Scenario (NDS) and High-speed Urbanization Scenario (HUS), the expansion mechanism is similar, and the area of woodland decreases greatly, which is mainly caused by the rapid expansion of construction land and cultivated land. Under Low-carbon and High-quality Development Scenario (LHDS) and Ecological Safety Governance Scenario (ESGS), woodland and grassland increased significantly, mainly because low-carbon and ecological governance policies strengthened ecological land protection and limited construction land control. By 2035, the prediction results show that LHDS has the highest CS (2.231 × 105 kt), followed by ESGS (2.226 × 105 kt), NDS (2.191 × 105 kt), and HUS (2.142 × 105 kt). The range of increase and decrease was 0.189, −0.149, −1.676, −3.692%, and only in LHDS, CS increased by 42.05 kt. Therefore, in order to achieve the “Dual-Carbon” goal, Wenzhou needs to prioritize the combination of LHDS and ESGS to formulate relevant policies.https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0735“dual carbon” targetterritorial spatial ecological governanceluccsd-plus-invest coupled modelcarbon storagemulti-scenario simulation
spellingShingle Quan Wei
Huang Xuankai
Xu Gang
Hao Jun
Lv Kangting
Jiang Xiaomin
Study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wenzhou
Open Geosciences
“dual carbon” target
territorial spatial ecological governance
lucc
sd-plus-invest coupled model
carbon storage
multi-scenario simulation
title Study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wenzhou
title_full Study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wenzhou
title_fullStr Study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wenzhou
title_full_unstemmed Study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wenzhou
title_short Study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios: A case study of Wenzhou
title_sort study on the influence mechanism of land use on carbon storage under multiple scenarios a case study of wenzhou
topic “dual carbon” target
territorial spatial ecological governance
lucc
sd-plus-invest coupled model
carbon storage
multi-scenario simulation
url https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0735
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