Effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problems
Source prescreening is a methodology where forensic examiners select samples that are similar to given trace evidence to represent the background population. This background evidence helps assign a value of evidence using a likelihood ratio or Bayes factor. A potential benefit of prescreening is a m...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Forensic Science International: Synergy |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24001074 |
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| author | Dylan Borchert Semhar Michael Andrew Simpson Christopher P. Saunders Larry Tang |
| author_facet | Dylan Borchert Semhar Michael Andrew Simpson Christopher P. Saunders Larry Tang |
| author_sort | Dylan Borchert |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Source prescreening is a methodology where forensic examiners select samples that are similar to given trace evidence to represent the background population. This background evidence helps assign a value of evidence using a likelihood ratio or Bayes factor. A potential benefit of prescreening is a mitigation of effects from subpopulation structures within the alternative source population by isolating the relevant subpopulation. This paper examines the impact of prescreening before assigning evidence value. Extensive simulations with synthetic and real data, including trace element and fingerprint score examples, were conducted. The findings indicate that when the subpopulation structure is known, prescreening can provide an accurate evidence value in cases of subpopulation structures. The study suggests that prescreening can be beneficial, but the prescreening method and level should be transparently reported alongside the evidence value. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f3412a98f34b4d6e8cde1de9f6874348 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2589-871X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Forensic Science International: Synergy |
| spelling | doaj-art-f3412a98f34b4d6e8cde1de9f68743482024-12-16T05:36:52ZengElsevierForensic Science International: Synergy2589-871X2024-01-019100560Effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problemsDylan Borchert0Semhar Michael1Andrew Simpson2Christopher P. Saunders3Larry Tang4South Dakota State University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Brookings, SD, United StatesSouth Dakota State University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Brookings, SD, United States; Corresponding author.South Dakota State University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Brookings, SD, United StatesSouth Dakota State University, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Brookings, SD, United StatesUniversity of Central Florida, Statistics and Data Science, Orlando, FL, United States; Rehabilitation Medicine Department, NIH Clinical Center, Bethesda, MD, United StatesSource prescreening is a methodology where forensic examiners select samples that are similar to given trace evidence to represent the background population. This background evidence helps assign a value of evidence using a likelihood ratio or Bayes factor. A potential benefit of prescreening is a mitigation of effects from subpopulation structures within the alternative source population by isolating the relevant subpopulation. This paper examines the impact of prescreening before assigning evidence value. Extensive simulations with synthetic and real data, including trace element and fingerprint score examples, were conducted. The findings indicate that when the subpopulation structure is known, prescreening can provide an accurate evidence value in cases of subpopulation structures. The study suggests that prescreening can be beneficial, but the prescreening method and level should be transparently reported alongside the evidence value.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24001074Value of evidenceLikelihood ratioRelevant source populationPrescreeningLatent subpopulation structures |
| spellingShingle | Dylan Borchert Semhar Michael Andrew Simpson Christopher P. Saunders Larry Tang Effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problems Forensic Science International: Synergy Value of evidence Likelihood ratio Relevant source population Prescreening Latent subpopulation structures |
| title | Effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problems |
| title_full | Effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problems |
| title_fullStr | Effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problems |
| title_short | Effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problems |
| title_sort | effects of prescreening for likelihood ratio approaches in the forensic identification of source problems |
| topic | Value of evidence Likelihood ratio Relevant source population Prescreening Latent subpopulation structures |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589871X24001074 |
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