The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality
Global food insecurity is projected to increase in distant years, which is challenging to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, viz. zero hunger in 2030. However, recent reports and studies suggest that climate variabilities and conflicts are the main hurdles developing and less developed...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Cogent Food & Agriculture |
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| Online Access: | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311932.2024.2347713 |
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| author | Abdimalik Ali Warsame Ibrahim Abdukadir Sheik-Ali Abdullahi Abdirahman Hassan Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie |
| author_facet | Abdimalik Ali Warsame Ibrahim Abdukadir Sheik-Ali Abdullahi Abdirahman Hassan Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie |
| author_sort | Abdimalik Ali Warsame |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Global food insecurity is projected to increase in distant years, which is challenging to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, viz. zero hunger in 2030. However, recent reports and studies suggest that climate variabilities and conflicts are the main hurdles developing and less developed nations face to overcome food insecurity and hunger. This undertaking assesses the effect of climate change and conflicts (external and internal conflicts) on food security in Somalia. To this end, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and time-varying Granger causality are utilized with annual data spanning 1985–2016. The empirical results show that average temperature and internal conflicts significantly hamper food security whereas rainfall and external conflicts are statistically insignificant in the long run. Besides, the time-varying Granger causality reveals that annual rainfall and temperature uniformly cause food security in two episodes (i.e. 1990–1992 and 2011–2012). Notably, Somalia experienced severe droughts which later led to a famine in 1992 and 2011. Similarly, both internal and external conflicts Granger cause food security in two similar episodes (i.e. 1990–1991 and 2010–2015). Our study underscores the importance of de-escalating the prolonged conflicts in Somalia and the need for designing policies that improve water availability to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f25a64011e2d4728bc5d7b541ea49ad8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2331-1932 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cogent Food & Agriculture |
| spelling | doaj-art-f25a64011e2d4728bc5d7b541ea49ad82024-12-13T09:52:50ZengTaylor & Francis GroupCogent Food & Agriculture2331-19322024-12-0110110.1080/23311932.2024.2347713The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causalityAbdimalik Ali Warsame0Ibrahim Abdukadir Sheik-Ali1Abdullahi Abdirahman Hassan2Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie3Faculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, SomaliaFaculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, SomaliaFaculty of Economics, SIMAD University, Mogadishu, SomaliaNord University Business School (HHN), Bodø, NorwayGlobal food insecurity is projected to increase in distant years, which is challenging to achieving Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2, viz. zero hunger in 2030. However, recent reports and studies suggest that climate variabilities and conflicts are the main hurdles developing and less developed nations face to overcome food insecurity and hunger. This undertaking assesses the effect of climate change and conflicts (external and internal conflicts) on food security in Somalia. To this end, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, and time-varying Granger causality are utilized with annual data spanning 1985–2016. The empirical results show that average temperature and internal conflicts significantly hamper food security whereas rainfall and external conflicts are statistically insignificant in the long run. Besides, the time-varying Granger causality reveals that annual rainfall and temperature uniformly cause food security in two episodes (i.e. 1990–1992 and 2011–2012). Notably, Somalia experienced severe droughts which later led to a famine in 1992 and 2011. Similarly, both internal and external conflicts Granger cause food security in two similar episodes (i.e. 1990–1991 and 2010–2015). Our study underscores the importance of de-escalating the prolonged conflicts in Somalia and the need for designing policies that improve water availability to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311932.2024.2347713Somaliaclimate changeconflictsfood securitytime-varying causalityARDL |
| spellingShingle | Abdimalik Ali Warsame Ibrahim Abdukadir Sheik-Ali Abdullahi Abdirahman Hassan Samuel Asumadu Sarkodie The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality Cogent Food & Agriculture Somalia climate change conflicts food security time-varying causality ARDL |
| title | The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality |
| title_full | The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality |
| title_fullStr | The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality |
| title_full_unstemmed | The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality |
| title_short | The nexus between climate change, conflicts and food security in Somalia: empirical evidence from time-varying Granger causality |
| title_sort | nexus between climate change conflicts and food security in somalia empirical evidence from time varying granger causality |
| topic | Somalia climate change conflicts food security time-varying causality ARDL |
| url | https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/23311932.2024.2347713 |
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