Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser
The article discusses whether it is possible to make reliable predictions of prison populations five to ten years in advance. This period corresponds approximately to the planning period that the Swedish Prison and Probation Service considers necessary for building new prisons. After a brief descrip...
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|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Danish |
| Published: |
De Nordiske Kriminalistforeninger
2010-08-01
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| Series: | Nordisk Tidsskrift for Kriminalvidenskab |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://tidsskrift.dk/NTfK/article/view/137439 |
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| _version_ | 1841554599576600576 |
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| author | Hanns von Hofer |
| author_facet | Hanns von Hofer |
| author_sort | Hanns von Hofer |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The article discusses whether it is possible to make reliable predictions of prison populations five to ten years in advance. This period corresponds approximately to the planning period that the Swedish Prison and Probation Service considers necessary for building new prisons. After a brief description of forecasting and its various methods, three quantitative forecasting methods are discussed: trend projection, extrapolation from causal models, and statistical modelling. Swedish and international prison population data (comprising years 1961 ta 2010) are used as illustrations. It is concluded that accurate long-term forecasts are unlikely, since prison population data tend to show strong random walk patterns. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-f0c99c53e07340a990ad8302d3d025a7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2446-3051 |
| language | Danish |
| publishDate | 2010-08-01 |
| publisher | De Nordiske Kriminalistforeninger |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Nordisk Tidsskrift for Kriminalvidenskab |
| spelling | doaj-art-f0c99c53e07340a990ad8302d3d025a72025-01-08T13:22:55ZdanDe Nordiske KriminalistforeningerNordisk Tidsskrift for Kriminalvidenskab2446-30512010-08-0197213214910.7146/ntfk.v97i2.137439130903Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelserHanns von HoferThe article discusses whether it is possible to make reliable predictions of prison populations five to ten years in advance. This period corresponds approximately to the planning period that the Swedish Prison and Probation Service considers necessary for building new prisons. After a brief description of forecasting and its various methods, three quantitative forecasting methods are discussed: trend projection, extrapolation from causal models, and statistical modelling. Swedish and international prison population data (comprising years 1961 ta 2010) are used as illustrations. It is concluded that accurate long-term forecasts are unlikely, since prison population data tend to show strong random walk patterns.https://tidsskrift.dk/NTfK/article/view/137439fängelser |
| spellingShingle | Hanns von Hofer Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser Nordisk Tidsskrift for Kriminalvidenskab fängelser |
| title | Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser |
| title_full | Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser |
| title_fullStr | Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser |
| title_full_unstemmed | Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser |
| title_short | Långsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet på fängelser |
| title_sort | langsiktiga prognoser av platsbehovet pa fangelser |
| topic | fängelser |
| url | https://tidsskrift.dk/NTfK/article/view/137439 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT hannsvonhofer langsiktigaprognoseravplatsbehovetpafangelser |