Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change
Abstract Environmental change can drive evolutionary adaptation and determine geographic patterns of biodiversity. Yet at a time of rapid environmental change, our ability to predict its evolutionary impacts is incomplete. Temporal environmental change, in particular, involves a combination of major...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14462 |
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| author | Cristóbal Gallegos Luis‐Miguel Chevin Kathryn A. Hodgins Keyne Monro |
| author_facet | Cristóbal Gallegos Luis‐Miguel Chevin Kathryn A. Hodgins Keyne Monro |
| author_sort | Cristóbal Gallegos |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Environmental change can drive evolutionary adaptation and determine geographic patterns of biodiversity. Yet at a time of rapid environmental change, our ability to predict its evolutionary impacts is incomplete. Temporal environmental change, in particular, involves a combination of major components such as abrupt shift, trend, cyclic change, and noise. Theoretical predictions exist for adaptation to isolated components, but knowledge gaps remain regarding their joint impacts. We extend classic evolutionary theory to develop a model for the evolution of environmental tolerance by the evolution of an underlying developmentally plastic trait, in response to major components of temporal change. We retrieve and synthesise earlier predictions of responses to isolated components, and generate new predictions for components changing simultaneously. Notably, we show how different forms of environmental predictability emerging from the interplay of cyclic change, stochastic change (noise) and lag between development and selection shape predictions. We then illustrate the utility of our model for generating testable predictions for the evolution of adaptation and plasticity when parameterised with real time series data. Specifically, we parameterise our model with daily time series of sea‐surface temperature from a global marine hotspot in southern Australia, and use model simulations to predict the evolution of thermal tolerance, and geographic differences in tolerance, in this region. By synthesising theory on evolutionary adaptation to temporal environmental change, and providing new insights into the joint effects of its different components, our framework, embedded in a Shiny app, offer a path to better predictions of biological responses to climate change. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-eeb9aa97466e40c19b3c7c6644655a9b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2041-210X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Methods in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj-art-eeb9aa97466e40c19b3c7c6644655a9b2025-01-08T05:44:10ZengWileyMethods in Ecology and Evolution2041-210X2025-01-01161849610.1111/2041-210X.14462Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental changeCristóbal Gallegos0Luis‐Miguel Chevin1Kathryn A. Hodgins2Keyne Monro3School of Biological Sciences Monash University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaCEFE‐CNRS, UMR 5175,1919 route de Mende 34293 Montpellier Cedex 05 FranceSchool of Biological Sciences Monash University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaSchool of Biological Sciences Monash University Melbourne Victoria AustraliaAbstract Environmental change can drive evolutionary adaptation and determine geographic patterns of biodiversity. Yet at a time of rapid environmental change, our ability to predict its evolutionary impacts is incomplete. Temporal environmental change, in particular, involves a combination of major components such as abrupt shift, trend, cyclic change, and noise. Theoretical predictions exist for adaptation to isolated components, but knowledge gaps remain regarding their joint impacts. We extend classic evolutionary theory to develop a model for the evolution of environmental tolerance by the evolution of an underlying developmentally plastic trait, in response to major components of temporal change. We retrieve and synthesise earlier predictions of responses to isolated components, and generate new predictions for components changing simultaneously. Notably, we show how different forms of environmental predictability emerging from the interplay of cyclic change, stochastic change (noise) and lag between development and selection shape predictions. We then illustrate the utility of our model for generating testable predictions for the evolution of adaptation and plasticity when parameterised with real time series data. Specifically, we parameterise our model with daily time series of sea‐surface temperature from a global marine hotspot in southern Australia, and use model simulations to predict the evolution of thermal tolerance, and geographic differences in tolerance, in this region. By synthesising theory on evolutionary adaptation to temporal environmental change, and providing new insights into the joint effects of its different components, our framework, embedded in a Shiny app, offer a path to better predictions of biological responses to climate change.https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14462climate changeenvironmental change componentsevolutionary adaptationevolutionary predictionevolutionary theoryphenotypic plasticity |
| spellingShingle | Cristóbal Gallegos Luis‐Miguel Chevin Kathryn A. Hodgins Keyne Monro Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change Methods in Ecology and Evolution climate change environmental change components evolutionary adaptation evolutionary prediction evolutionary theory phenotypic plasticity |
| title | Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change |
| title_full | Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change |
| title_fullStr | Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change |
| title_short | Predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change |
| title_sort | predicting adaptation and evolution of plasticity from temporal environmental change |
| topic | climate change environmental change components evolutionary adaptation evolutionary prediction evolutionary theory phenotypic plasticity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.14462 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cristobalgallegos predictingadaptationandevolutionofplasticityfromtemporalenvironmentalchange AT luismiguelchevin predictingadaptationandevolutionofplasticityfromtemporalenvironmentalchange AT kathrynahodgins predictingadaptationandevolutionofplasticityfromtemporalenvironmentalchange AT keynemonro predictingadaptationandevolutionofplasticityfromtemporalenvironmentalchange |