Future large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitation
Abstract In this work, we examine connections between patterns of future Greenland precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes over the Northern Hemisphere. In the last three decades of the 21st century, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble mean precipitation significantly decreases over the n...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00899-z |
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| author | Baojuan Huai Minghu Ding Michiel R. van den Broeke Carleen H. Reijmer Brice Noël Weijun Sun Yetang Wang |
| author_facet | Baojuan Huai Minghu Ding Michiel R. van den Broeke Carleen H. Reijmer Brice Noël Weijun Sun Yetang Wang |
| author_sort | Baojuan Huai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract In this work, we examine connections between patterns of future Greenland precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes over the Northern Hemisphere. In the last three decades of the 21st century, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble mean precipitation significantly decreases over the northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean with respect to 1951–1980. This drying signal extends from the ocean to the southeastern margin of Greenland. The 500 hPa geopotential height change shows a clear pattern including a widespread increase across the Arctic with a negative anomaly centered over Iceland and surrounding regions. To identify the mechanisms linking atmospheric circulation variability with Greenland precipitation, we perform a singular value decomposition (SVD) and center of action (COA) analysis. We find that a northeastward shift of the Icelandic Low (IL) under the SSP5‐8.5 warming scenario leads to the drying signal found in southeast Greenland. This implies that the IL location will have a strong influence on precipitation changes over southeast Greenland in the future, impacting projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e9c42800e2f84b4ea2c995416f6a0b1b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-e9c42800e2f84b4ea2c995416f6a0b1b2025-01-12T12:13:29ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-01-018111110.1038/s41612-025-00899-zFuture large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitationBaojuan Huai0Minghu Ding1Michiel R. van den Broeke2Carleen H. Reijmer3Brice Noël4Weijun Sun5Yetang Wang6College of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal UniversityState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht UniversityInstitute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, Utrecht UniversityLaboratory of Climatology and Topoclimatology, Department of Geography, University of LiègeCollege of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal UniversityCollege of Geography and Environment, Shandong Normal UniversityAbstract In this work, we examine connections between patterns of future Greenland precipitation and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes over the Northern Hemisphere. In the last three decades of the 21st century, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble mean precipitation significantly decreases over the northern part of the North Atlantic Ocean with respect to 1951–1980. This drying signal extends from the ocean to the southeastern margin of Greenland. The 500 hPa geopotential height change shows a clear pattern including a widespread increase across the Arctic with a negative anomaly centered over Iceland and surrounding regions. To identify the mechanisms linking atmospheric circulation variability with Greenland precipitation, we perform a singular value decomposition (SVD) and center of action (COA) analysis. We find that a northeastward shift of the Icelandic Low (IL) under the SSP5‐8.5 warming scenario leads to the drying signal found in southeast Greenland. This implies that the IL location will have a strong influence on precipitation changes over southeast Greenland in the future, impacting projections of Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00899-z |
| spellingShingle | Baojuan Huai Minghu Ding Michiel R. van den Broeke Carleen H. Reijmer Brice Noël Weijun Sun Yetang Wang Future large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitation npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Future large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitation |
| title_full | Future large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitation |
| title_fullStr | Future large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitation |
| title_short | Future large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and Greenland precipitation |
| title_sort | future large scale atmospheric circulation changes and greenland precipitation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00899-z |
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