The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainty on Inflation Rate in Saudi Arabia

Inflation rate is considered undesirable in the modern globalized world due to its adverse and long-lasting impacts. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, hereafter) has also experienced inflationary pressure during the last few years, specifically post-COVID-19. However, the empirical literature on the...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Abdulrahman A. Albahouth
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-03-01
Series:Risks
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/3/54
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1849340037960826880
author Abdulrahman A. Albahouth
author_facet Abdulrahman A. Albahouth
author_sort Abdulrahman A. Albahouth
collection DOAJ
description Inflation rate is considered undesirable in the modern globalized world due to its adverse and long-lasting impacts. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, hereafter) has also experienced inflationary pressure during the last few years, specifically post-COVID-19. However, the empirical literature on the determinants of inflation is indeed very scarce in the context of KSA. Amid this backdrop, this research paper aims to figure out the true determinants of inflation by focusing on the role of supply chain disruptions and global uncertainty by focusing on KSA. Quantitative data were collected from credible sources on a monthly basis for the period of 1998M01 to 2024M02 and were analyzed through the “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)”. Our findings indicate that inflation in KSA is positively impacted by supply chain disruptions, global uncertainty, inflation spillovers from the United States, and money supply in the long run. Similarly, in the short run, only money supply, supply chain disruptions, and global uncertainty are responsible for the prevailing inflation rate in KSA. Moreover, the real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly linked with inflation only in the long run. Furthermore, positive shocks in oil prices cure inflation, while negative shocks in oil prices accelerate inflation in the short run. Our results are expected to shape policy formulation regarding the management of the inflation rate in KSA significantly.
format Article
id doaj-art-e8e644dcaf1e4ca8b738b1136a0b6d40
institution Kabale University
issn 2227-9091
language English
publishDate 2025-03-01
publisher MDPI AG
record_format Article
series Risks
spelling doaj-art-e8e644dcaf1e4ca8b738b1136a0b6d402025-08-20T03:44:00ZengMDPI AGRisks2227-90912025-03-011335410.3390/risks13030054The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainty on Inflation Rate in Saudi ArabiaAbdulrahman A. Albahouth0Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, Qassim University, Buraydah 51452, Saudi ArabiaInflation rate is considered undesirable in the modern globalized world due to its adverse and long-lasting impacts. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, hereafter) has also experienced inflationary pressure during the last few years, specifically post-COVID-19. However, the empirical literature on the determinants of inflation is indeed very scarce in the context of KSA. Amid this backdrop, this research paper aims to figure out the true determinants of inflation by focusing on the role of supply chain disruptions and global uncertainty by focusing on KSA. Quantitative data were collected from credible sources on a monthly basis for the period of 1998M01 to 2024M02 and were analyzed through the “Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL)”. Our findings indicate that inflation in KSA is positively impacted by supply chain disruptions, global uncertainty, inflation spillovers from the United States, and money supply in the long run. Similarly, in the short run, only money supply, supply chain disruptions, and global uncertainty are responsible for the prevailing inflation rate in KSA. Moreover, the real effective exchange rate is positively and significantly linked with inflation only in the long run. Furthermore, positive shocks in oil prices cure inflation, while negative shocks in oil prices accelerate inflation in the short run. Our results are expected to shape policy formulation regarding the management of the inflation rate in KSA significantly.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/3/54inflation ratesupply chain disruptionsuncertaintyspilloversARDL
spellingShingle Abdulrahman A. Albahouth
The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainty on Inflation Rate in Saudi Arabia
Risks
inflation rate
supply chain disruptions
uncertainty
spillovers
ARDL
title The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainty on Inflation Rate in Saudi Arabia
title_full The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainty on Inflation Rate in Saudi Arabia
title_fullStr The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainty on Inflation Rate in Saudi Arabia
title_full_unstemmed The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainty on Inflation Rate in Saudi Arabia
title_short The Impact of Supply Chain Disruptions and Global Uncertainty on Inflation Rate in Saudi Arabia
title_sort impact of supply chain disruptions and global uncertainty on inflation rate in saudi arabia
topic inflation rate
supply chain disruptions
uncertainty
spillovers
ARDL
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-9091/13/3/54
work_keys_str_mv AT abdulrahmanaalbahouth theimpactofsupplychaindisruptionsandglobaluncertaintyoninflationrateinsaudiarabia
AT abdulrahmanaalbahouth impactofsupplychaindisruptionsandglobaluncertaintyoninflationrateinsaudiarabia