Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the main driver of climate change, with global warming increasing almost linearly with cumulative CO2 emissions. Hence, future warming will primarily result from future emissions of CO2 with contributions from other greenhouse gases (mostly CH4 and N2...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Climate |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208/full |
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| author | Pierre Friedlingstein Pierre Friedlingstein Paulo Artaxo Angela V. Gallego-Sala Gensuo Jia Chris D. Jones Chris D. Jones Michio Kawamiya Michio Kawamiya Julie Loisel Marie-France Loutre Kira Rehfeld Alessio Rovere Alessio Rovere Chris Smith Chris Smith Chris Smith Roland Séférian Narelle van der Wel Elisa Ziegler |
| author_facet | Pierre Friedlingstein Pierre Friedlingstein Paulo Artaxo Angela V. Gallego-Sala Gensuo Jia Chris D. Jones Chris D. Jones Michio Kawamiya Michio Kawamiya Julie Loisel Marie-France Loutre Kira Rehfeld Alessio Rovere Alessio Rovere Chris Smith Chris Smith Chris Smith Roland Séférian Narelle van der Wel Elisa Ziegler |
| author_sort | Pierre Friedlingstein |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the main driver of climate change, with global warming increasing almost linearly with cumulative CO2 emissions. Hence, future warming will primarily result from future emissions of CO2 with contributions from other greenhouse gases (mostly CH4 and N2O) and aerosols. Climate projections of the 21st century, such as those assessed by the IPCC, are provided from comprehensive climate models, also called Earth System models, driven by scenarios of the 21st century evolution of emissions from those climate forcers. While it seems now inevitable that the world will reach 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the early 2030s, the extent to which we exceed this warming level and how quickly we may be able to reduce temperatures again depends strongly on global activity taken now to limit emissions. In this paper, we review the current understanding on Earth system changes under two highly contrasted possible future worlds. We first focus on high-end scenarios, where anthropogenic emissions continue to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to large warming levels, associated impacts on all components of the Earth System, and increased risks of triggering tipping points. We then assess low-end scenarios, where anthropogenic emissions rapidly decline, reaching net zero and potentially becoming net negative before the end of the 21st century. Such “overshoot” scenarios lead to a peak in global warming followed by a slow decline in global temperature, with some degree of reversibility in the global carbon cycle and key Earth system components. We also review paleoclimatic information relevant to these two contrasting future worlds. Paleoclimate evidence for geo-biosphere interactions shows that stabilizing feedbacks operate on millennial or longer timescales, whereas destabilizing feedbacks and tipping cascades occurred also on shorter timescales. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e85bef259b5c44b988edab5583a6c4fb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2624-9553 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Climate |
| spelling | doaj-art-e85bef259b5c44b988edab5583a6c4fb2024-12-02T06:23:33ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Climate2624-95532024-12-01610.3389/fclim.2024.14802081480208Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigationPierre Friedlingstein0Pierre Friedlingstein1Paulo Artaxo2Angela V. Gallego-Sala3Gensuo Jia4Chris D. Jones5Chris D. Jones6Michio Kawamiya7Michio Kawamiya8Julie Loisel9Marie-France Loutre10Kira Rehfeld11Alessio Rovere12Alessio Rovere13Chris Smith14Chris Smith15Chris Smith16Roland Séférian17Narelle van der Wel18Elisa Ziegler19Faculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, United KingdomLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, École Normale Supérieure, Université PSL, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, Paris, FranceCenter for Amazonian Sustainability, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, BrazilFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter, United KingdomInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United KingdomSchool of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United KingdomJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, JapanAdvanced Institute for Marine Ecosystem Change, Tohoku University, Sendai, JapanDepartment of Geography, University of Nevada Reno, Reno, NV, United States0Past Global Changes (PAGES), Bern, Switzerland1Department of Geosciences, Geo- and Environmental Research Center, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany2Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy3MARUM, Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, GermanyMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom4School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom5International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria6CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France7World Climate Research Programme Secretariat, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland1Department of Geosciences, Geo- and Environmental Research Center, University of Tübingen, Tübingen, GermanyAnthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are the main driver of climate change, with global warming increasing almost linearly with cumulative CO2 emissions. Hence, future warming will primarily result from future emissions of CO2 with contributions from other greenhouse gases (mostly CH4 and N2O) and aerosols. Climate projections of the 21st century, such as those assessed by the IPCC, are provided from comprehensive climate models, also called Earth System models, driven by scenarios of the 21st century evolution of emissions from those climate forcers. While it seems now inevitable that the world will reach 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels by the early 2030s, the extent to which we exceed this warming level and how quickly we may be able to reduce temperatures again depends strongly on global activity taken now to limit emissions. In this paper, we review the current understanding on Earth system changes under two highly contrasted possible future worlds. We first focus on high-end scenarios, where anthropogenic emissions continue to increase over the course of the 21st century, leading to large warming levels, associated impacts on all components of the Earth System, and increased risks of triggering tipping points. We then assess low-end scenarios, where anthropogenic emissions rapidly decline, reaching net zero and potentially becoming net negative before the end of the 21st century. Such “overshoot” scenarios lead to a peak in global warming followed by a slow decline in global temperature, with some degree of reversibility in the global carbon cycle and key Earth system components. We also review paleoclimatic information relevant to these two contrasting future worlds. Paleoclimate evidence for geo-biosphere interactions shows that stabilizing feedbacks operate on millennial or longer timescales, whereas destabilizing feedbacks and tipping cascades occurred also on shorter timescales.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208/fullclimate changeearth systemclimate projectioncarbon cyclepaleoclimate |
| spellingShingle | Pierre Friedlingstein Pierre Friedlingstein Paulo Artaxo Angela V. Gallego-Sala Gensuo Jia Chris D. Jones Chris D. Jones Michio Kawamiya Michio Kawamiya Julie Loisel Marie-France Loutre Kira Rehfeld Alessio Rovere Alessio Rovere Chris Smith Chris Smith Chris Smith Roland Séférian Narelle van der Wel Elisa Ziegler Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation Frontiers in Climate climate change earth system climate projection carbon cycle paleoclimate |
| title | Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation |
| title_full | Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation |
| title_fullStr | Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation |
| title_short | Earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation |
| title_sort | earth system responses to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions mitigation |
| topic | climate change earth system climate projection carbon cycle paleoclimate |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1480208/full |
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