Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projections
Abstract Background Interstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary sarcoidosis (PS) constitute major global health challenges, characterized by progressive respiratory symptoms and diverse epidemiological trends. Although the incidence and mortality rates of ILD and PS have increased following the CO...
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BMC
2025-07-01
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12890-025-03813-8 |
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| author | Luna Zhao Yue Zhou Yun Jia Lang Wang Ye Liu Guizhen Lv Yihao Zhang Jinyang Li Junfeng Ren Hongzheng Liu Yufeng Zhang Ning Wang Wenwen Zhang Wenqiang Mo Jiaqi Liu Yilin Wang Junhao Ma Chao Wu Dong Liu GBD Collaborator |
| author_facet | Luna Zhao Yue Zhou Yun Jia Lang Wang Ye Liu Guizhen Lv Yihao Zhang Jinyang Li Junfeng Ren Hongzheng Liu Yufeng Zhang Ning Wang Wenwen Zhang Wenqiang Mo Jiaqi Liu Yilin Wang Junhao Ma Chao Wu Dong Liu GBD Collaborator |
| author_sort | Luna Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Interstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary sarcoidosis (PS) constitute major global health challenges, characterized by progressive respiratory symptoms and diverse epidemiological trends. Although the incidence and mortality rates of ILD and PS have increased following the COVID-19 pandemic, comprehensive research examining their burden and associated risk factors remains limited. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, gender-specific and age-related disparities, and sociodemographic determinants of ILD and PS from 1990 to 2021 to facilitate evidence-based targeted interventions. Methods By using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, we analyzed age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) across 204 countries/regions. Temporal trends were evaluated using average annual percentage change (AAPC), age-period-cohort (APC), and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models. Decomposition analysis and Pearson’s correlation analysis were conducted to assess the impact of aging, population growth, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression was used to identify inflection points in trends. Future disease burdens (2021–2050) were projected through BAPC modeling. Results Global ILD and PS cases increased from 157,441.17 in 1990 to 390,267.11 in 2021, with an annual increase in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR by 0.61%, 1.32%, and 0.83%, respectively. High-SDI regions exhibited the highest ASIR (71.4/100,000) and ASMR (25.5/100,000). Males exhibited greater disease burdens than females ASDR 57.79/100,000 vs. 39.49/100,000 in 2021), with a peak incidence in the 70–74 age group. SDI showed positive correlations with ASIR and ASMR, exhibiting U-shaped relationships in certain regions. Projections indicated stable ASMR but increasing ASIR and ASDR by 2050, particularly among males. Conclusions The global burden of ILD and PS has increased markedly since 1990, influenced by population aging, industrial development, and socioeconomic disparities. Prioritizing early screening (e.g., high-resolution computed tomography and serum biomarkers), minimizing environmental and occupational exposures, and implementing gender-/age-specific interventions are critical measures. Strengthening healthcare infrastructure in low-SDI regions and integrating advanced diagnostic technologies are crucial for reducing future disease burdens. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e847a1e32b724c60a1fe763945f81c6b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1471-2466 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Pulmonary Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-e847a1e32b724c60a1fe763945f81c6b2025-08-20T03:42:43ZengBMCBMC Pulmonary Medicine1471-24662025-07-0125111910.1186/s12890-025-03813-8Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projectionsLuna Zhao0Yue Zhou1Yun Jia2Lang Wang3Ye Liu4Guizhen Lv5Yihao Zhang6Jinyang Li7Junfeng Ren8Hongzheng Liu9Yufeng Zhang10Ning Wang11Wenwen Zhang12Wenqiang Mo13Jiaqi Liu14Yilin Wang15Junhao Ma16Chao Wu17Dong Liu18GBD CollaboratorDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityShihezi University School of MedicineShihezi University School of MedicineShihezi University School of MedicineDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityShihezi University School of MedicineShihezi University School of MedicineShihezi University School of MedicineDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region People’s HospitalDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityShihezi University School of MedicineDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityShihezi University School of MedicineSchool of Public Health, Hangzhou Medical CollegeDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityDepartment of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shihezi UniversityAbstract Background Interstitial lung disease (ILD) and pulmonary sarcoidosis (PS) constitute major global health challenges, characterized by progressive respiratory symptoms and diverse epidemiological trends. Although the incidence and mortality rates of ILD and PS have increased following the COVID-19 pandemic, comprehensive research examining their burden and associated risk factors remains limited. Therefore, the present study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution, gender-specific and age-related disparities, and sociodemographic determinants of ILD and PS from 1990 to 2021 to facilitate evidence-based targeted interventions. Methods By using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database, we analyzed age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life year rate (ASDR) across 204 countries/regions. Temporal trends were evaluated using average annual percentage change (AAPC), age-period-cohort (APC), and Bayesian APC (BAPC) models. Decomposition analysis and Pearson’s correlation analysis were conducted to assess the impact of aging, population growth, and sociodemographic index (SDI). Joinpoint regression was used to identify inflection points in trends. Future disease burdens (2021–2050) were projected through BAPC modeling. Results Global ILD and PS cases increased from 157,441.17 in 1990 to 390,267.11 in 2021, with an annual increase in ASIR, ASMR, and ASDR by 0.61%, 1.32%, and 0.83%, respectively. High-SDI regions exhibited the highest ASIR (71.4/100,000) and ASMR (25.5/100,000). Males exhibited greater disease burdens than females ASDR 57.79/100,000 vs. 39.49/100,000 in 2021), with a peak incidence in the 70–74 age group. SDI showed positive correlations with ASIR and ASMR, exhibiting U-shaped relationships in certain regions. Projections indicated stable ASMR but increasing ASIR and ASDR by 2050, particularly among males. Conclusions The global burden of ILD and PS has increased markedly since 1990, influenced by population aging, industrial development, and socioeconomic disparities. Prioritizing early screening (e.g., high-resolution computed tomography and serum biomarkers), minimizing environmental and occupational exposures, and implementing gender-/age-specific interventions are critical measures. Strengthening healthcare infrastructure in low-SDI regions and integrating advanced diagnostic technologies are crucial for reducing future disease burdens.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12890-025-03813-8Interstitial lung diseasePulmonary sarcoidosisGlobal burden of diseaseAge-period-cohort modelEpidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Luna Zhao Yue Zhou Yun Jia Lang Wang Ye Liu Guizhen Lv Yihao Zhang Jinyang Li Junfeng Ren Hongzheng Liu Yufeng Zhang Ning Wang Wenwen Zhang Wenqiang Mo Jiaqi Liu Yilin Wang Junhao Ma Chao Wu Dong Liu GBD Collaborator Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projections BMC Pulmonary Medicine Interstitial lung disease Pulmonary sarcoidosis Global burden of disease Age-period-cohort model Epidemiology |
| title | Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projections |
| title_full | Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projections |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projections |
| title_short | Assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models: analysis and future projections |
| title_sort | assessing the global burden of interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis using multiple statistical models analysis and future projections |
| topic | Interstitial lung disease Pulmonary sarcoidosis Global burden of disease Age-period-cohort model Epidemiology |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12890-025-03813-8 |
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