Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020
<p>Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Biogeosciences |
| Online Access: | https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/22/305/2025/bg-22-305-2025.pdf |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841527645867606016 |
|---|---|
| author | Z. Zhang B. Poulter J. R. Melton W. J. Riley G. H. Allen D. J. Beerling P. Bousquet J. G. Canadell E. Fluet-Chouinard P. Ciais N. Gedney P. O. Hopcroft A. Ito R. B. Jackson A. K. Jain K. Jensen F. Joos T. Kleinen S. H. Knox S. H. Knox T. Li X. Li X. Liu K. McDonald G. McNicol P. A. Miller J. Müller P. K. Patra P. K. Patra C. Peng S. Peng Z. Qin R. M. Riggs M. Saunois Q. Sun H. Tian X. Xu Y. Yao Y. Xi W. Zhang W. Zhang Q. Zhu Q. Zhu Q. Zhuang |
| author_facet | Z. Zhang B. Poulter J. R. Melton W. J. Riley G. H. Allen D. J. Beerling P. Bousquet J. G. Canadell E. Fluet-Chouinard P. Ciais N. Gedney P. O. Hopcroft A. Ito R. B. Jackson A. K. Jain K. Jensen F. Joos T. Kleinen S. H. Knox S. H. Knox T. Li X. Li X. Liu K. McDonald G. McNicol P. A. Miller J. Müller P. K. Patra P. K. Patra C. Peng S. Peng Z. Qin R. M. Riggs M. Saunois Q. Sun H. Tian X. Xu Y. Yao Y. Xi W. Zhang W. Zhang Q. Zhu Q. Zhu Q. Zhuang |
| author_sort | Z. Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emissions from 2000–2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emissions at 158 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 24 (mean <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 1<span class="inline-formula"><i>σ</i></span>) Tg CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> yr<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span> over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> <span class="inline-formula">2.0×10<sup>6</sup></span> km<span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span> for the period 2010–2020, with an average increase of 6–7 Tg CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> yr<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span> in 2010–2019 compared to the average for 2000–2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90–30° S, 30° S–30° N, 30–60° N, and 60–90° N were 0.1–0.2, 3.6–3.7, 1.8–2.4, and 0.6–0.8 Tg CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> yr<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e846c41a9c684ba2aae435859bc68b05 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Biogeosciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-e846c41a9c684ba2aae435859bc68b052025-01-15T12:56:14ZengCopernicus PublicationsBiogeosciences1726-41701726-41892025-01-012230532110.5194/bg-22-305-2025Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020Z. Zhang0B. Poulter1J. R. Melton2W. J. Riley3G. H. Allen4D. J. Beerling5P. Bousquet6J. G. Canadell7E. Fluet-Chouinard8P. Ciais9N. Gedney10P. O. Hopcroft11A. Ito12R. B. Jackson13A. K. Jain14K. Jensen15F. Joos16T. Kleinen17S. H. Knox18S. H. Knox19T. Li20X. Li21X. Liu22K. McDonald23G. McNicol24P. A. Miller25J. Müller26P. K. Patra27P. K. Patra28C. Peng29S. Peng30Z. Qin31R. M. Riggs32M. Saunois33Q. Sun34H. Tian35X. Xu36Y. Yao37Y. Xi38W. Zhang39W. Zhang40Q. Zhu41Q. Zhu42Q. Zhuang43National Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resource (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, ChinaNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Earth Sciences Division, Greenbelt, MD, USAClimate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, CanadaClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USADepartment of Geosciences, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USALeverhulme Centre for Climate Change Mitigation, School of Biosciences, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UKLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceGlobal Carbon Project, CSIRO Environment, ACT 2601, AustraliaEarth Systems Science Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA 99352, USALaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceMet Office Hadley Centre, Joint Centre for Hydrometeorological Research, Wallingford, UKSchool of Geography, Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UKGraduate School of Agricultural and Life Sciences, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, JapanDepartment of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305–2210, USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USADepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, City College of New York, City University of New York, NY, USAClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandDepartment of Climate Dynamics, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyDepartment of Geography, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CanadaDepartment of Geography, McGill University, Montreal, QC, CanadaState Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, ChinaNational Tibetan Plateau Data Center (TPDC), State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resource (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, ChinaDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric, Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USADepartment of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, City College of New York, City University of New York, NY, USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Chicago, IL, USADepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, SwedenClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandJapan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokohama, JapanResearch Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), Kyoto, JapanDepartment of Biology Sciences, University of Quebec in Montreal, C.P. 8888, Succ. Centre-Ville, Montreal, QC H3C 3P8, CanadaSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, ChinaSchool of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun-Yat-Sen University, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519000, ChinaDepartment of Geography, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USALaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA, CNRS, UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandCenter for Earth System Science and Global Sustainability, Schiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USADepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USASchool of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, ChinaSino-French Institute for Earth System Science, Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, ChinaDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, 223 62, Lund, SwedenSchool of Geographical and Earth Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, G12 8QQ, UKClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USACollege of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, ChinaDepartment of Earth, Atmospheric, Planetary Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA<p>Due to ongoing climate change, methane (CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span>) emissions from vegetated wetlands are projected to increase during the 21st century, challenging climate mitigation efforts aimed at limiting global warming. However, despite reports of rising emission trends, a comprehensive evaluation and attribution of recent changes remains limited. Here we assessed global wetland CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emissions from 2000–2020 based on an ensemble of 16 process-based wetland models. Our results estimated global average wetland CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emissions at 158 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 24 (mean <span class="inline-formula">±</span> 1<span class="inline-formula"><i>σ</i></span>) Tg CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> yr<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span> over a total annual average wetland area of 8.0 <span class="inline-formula">±</span> <span class="inline-formula">2.0×10<sup>6</sup></span> km<span class="inline-formula"><sup>2</sup></span> for the period 2010–2020, with an average increase of 6–7 Tg CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> yr<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span> in 2010–2019 compared to the average for 2000–2009. The increases in the four latitudinal bands of 90–30° S, 30° S–30° N, 30–60° N, and 60–90° N were 0.1–0.2, 3.6–3.7, 1.8–2.4, and 0.6–0.8 Tg CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> yr<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>, respectively, over the 2 decades. The modeled CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> sensitivities to temperature show reasonable consistency with eddy-covariance-based measurements from 34 sites. Rising temperature was the primary driver of the increase, while precipitation and rising atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> concentrations played secondary roles with high levels of uncertainty. These modeled results suggest that climate change is driving increased wetland CH<span class="inline-formula"><sub>4</sub></span> emissions and that direct and sustained measurements are needed to monitor developments.</p>https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/22/305/2025/bg-22-305-2025.pdf |
| spellingShingle | Z. Zhang B. Poulter J. R. Melton W. J. Riley G. H. Allen D. J. Beerling P. Bousquet J. G. Canadell E. Fluet-Chouinard P. Ciais N. Gedney P. O. Hopcroft A. Ito R. B. Jackson A. K. Jain K. Jensen F. Joos T. Kleinen S. H. Knox S. H. Knox T. Li X. Li X. Liu K. McDonald G. McNicol P. A. Miller J. Müller P. K. Patra P. K. Patra C. Peng S. Peng Z. Qin R. M. Riggs M. Saunois Q. Sun H. Tian X. Xu Y. Yao Y. Xi W. Zhang W. Zhang Q. Zhu Q. Zhu Q. Zhuang Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020 Biogeosciences |
| title | Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020 |
| title_full | Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020 |
| title_fullStr | Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020 |
| title_short | Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020 |
| title_sort | ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000 2020 |
| url | https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/22/305/2025/bg-22-305-2025.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zzhang ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT bpoulter ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT jrmelton ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT wjriley ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT ghallen ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT djbeerling ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT pbousquet ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT jgcanadell ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT efluetchouinard ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT pciais ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT ngedney ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT pohopcroft ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT aito ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT rbjackson ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT akjain ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT kjensen ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT fjoos ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT tkleinen ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT shknox ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT shknox ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT tli ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT xli ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT xliu ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT kmcdonald ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT gmcnicol ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT pamiller ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT jmuller ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT pkpatra ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT pkpatra ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT cpeng ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT speng ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT zqin ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT rmriggs ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT msaunois ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT qsun ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT htian ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT xxu ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT yyao ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT yxi ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT wzhang ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT wzhang ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT qzhu ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT qzhu ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 AT qzhuang ensembleestimatesofglobalwetlandmethaneemissionsover20002020 |