Forecasting Hydropower with Innovation Diffusion Models: A Cross-Country Analysis
Hydroelectric power is one of the most important renewable energy sources in the world. It currently generates more electricity than all other renewable technologies combined and, according to the International Energy Agency, it is expected to remain the world’s largest source of renewable electrici...
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MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| author | Farooq Ahmad Livio Finos Mariangela Guidolin |
| author_facet | Farooq Ahmad Livio Finos Mariangela Guidolin |
| author_sort | Farooq Ahmad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Hydroelectric power is one of the most important renewable energy sources in the world. It currently generates more electricity than all other renewable technologies combined and, according to the International Energy Agency, it is expected to remain the world’s largest source of renewable electricity generation into the 2030s. Thus, despite the increasing focus on more recent energy technologies, such as solar and wind power, it will continue to play a critical role in energy transition. The management of hydropower plants and future planning should be ensured through careful planning based on the suitable forecasting of the future of this energy source. Starting from these considerations, in this paper, we examine the evolution of hydropower with a forecasting analysis for a selected group of countries. We analyze the time-series data of hydropower generation from 1965 to 2023 and apply Innovation Diffusion Models, as well as other models such as Prophet and ARIMA, for comparison. The models are evaluated for different geographical regions, namely the North, South, and Central American countries, the European countries, and the Middle East with Asian countries, to determine their effectiveness in predicting trends in hydropower generation. The models’ accuracy is assessed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Through this analysis, we find that, on average, the GGM outperforms the Prophet and ARIMA models, and is more accurate than the Bass model. This study underscores the critical role of precise forecasting in energy planning and suggests further research to validate these results and explore other factors influencing the future of hydroelectric generation. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2571-9394 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
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| series | Forecasting |
| spelling | doaj-art-e5e7efba829a42c49173a3d008d8fdee2024-12-27T14:26:49ZengMDPI AGForecasting2571-93942024-11-01641045106410.3390/forecast6040052Forecasting Hydropower with Innovation Diffusion Models: A Cross-Country AnalysisFarooq Ahmad0Livio Finos1Mariangela Guidolin2Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, 35121 Padua, ItalyDepartment of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, 35121 Padua, ItalyDepartment of Statistical Sciences, University of Padua, 35121 Padua, ItalyHydroelectric power is one of the most important renewable energy sources in the world. It currently generates more electricity than all other renewable technologies combined and, according to the International Energy Agency, it is expected to remain the world’s largest source of renewable electricity generation into the 2030s. Thus, despite the increasing focus on more recent energy technologies, such as solar and wind power, it will continue to play a critical role in energy transition. The management of hydropower plants and future planning should be ensured through careful planning based on the suitable forecasting of the future of this energy source. Starting from these considerations, in this paper, we examine the evolution of hydropower with a forecasting analysis for a selected group of countries. We analyze the time-series data of hydropower generation from 1965 to 2023 and apply Innovation Diffusion Models, as well as other models such as Prophet and ARIMA, for comparison. The models are evaluated for different geographical regions, namely the North, South, and Central American countries, the European countries, and the Middle East with Asian countries, to determine their effectiveness in predicting trends in hydropower generation. The models’ accuracy is assessed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Through this analysis, we find that, on average, the GGM outperforms the Prophet and ARIMA models, and is more accurate than the Bass model. This study underscores the critical role of precise forecasting in energy planning and suggests further research to validate these results and explore other factors influencing the future of hydroelectric generation.https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/6/4/52energy transitionhydropowerforecastingBass model (BM)Guseo and Guidolin model (GGM)ARIMA model |
| spellingShingle | Farooq Ahmad Livio Finos Mariangela Guidolin Forecasting Hydropower with Innovation Diffusion Models: A Cross-Country Analysis Forecasting energy transition hydropower forecasting Bass model (BM) Guseo and Guidolin model (GGM) ARIMA model |
| title | Forecasting Hydropower with Innovation Diffusion Models: A Cross-Country Analysis |
| title_full | Forecasting Hydropower with Innovation Diffusion Models: A Cross-Country Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting Hydropower with Innovation Diffusion Models: A Cross-Country Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting Hydropower with Innovation Diffusion Models: A Cross-Country Analysis |
| title_short | Forecasting Hydropower with Innovation Diffusion Models: A Cross-Country Analysis |
| title_sort | forecasting hydropower with innovation diffusion models a cross country analysis |
| topic | energy transition hydropower forecasting Bass model (BM) Guseo and Guidolin model (GGM) ARIMA model |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/6/4/52 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT farooqahmad forecastinghydropowerwithinnovationdiffusionmodelsacrosscountryanalysis AT liviofinos forecastinghydropowerwithinnovationdiffusionmodelsacrosscountryanalysis AT mariangelaguidolin forecastinghydropowerwithinnovationdiffusionmodelsacrosscountryanalysis |