Fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapies

Objective We aimed to evaluate the robustness of phase III randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for SLE and lupus nephritis (LN) using the fragility index (FI), the reverse FI (RFI) and the fragility quotient (FQ).Methods We searched for phase III RCTs that included patients with active SLE or LN. Da...

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Main Authors: Ali Duarte-García, Gabriel Figueroa-Parra, Cynthia S Crowson, Michael S Putman
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: BMJ Publishing Group 2024-05-01
Series:Lupus Science and Medicine
Online Access:https://lupus.bmj.com/content/11/1/e001068.full
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author Ali Duarte-García
Gabriel Figueroa-Parra
Cynthia S Crowson
Michael S Putman
author_facet Ali Duarte-García
Gabriel Figueroa-Parra
Cynthia S Crowson
Michael S Putman
author_sort Ali Duarte-García
collection DOAJ
description Objective We aimed to evaluate the robustness of phase III randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for SLE and lupus nephritis (LN) using the fragility index (FI), the reverse FI (RFI) and the fragility quotient (FQ).Methods We searched for phase III RCTs that included patients with active SLE or LN. Data on primary endpoints, total participants and the number of events for each arm were obtained. We calculated the FI score for RCTs with statistically significant results (number of patients required to change from event to non-event to make the study lose statistical significance), the RFI for RCTs without statistically significant results (number of patients required to change from non-event to event to make study gain statistical significance) and the FQ score for both (FI or RFI score divided by the sample size).Results We evaluated 20 RCTs (16 SLE, four LN). The mean FI/RFI score was 13.6 (SD 6.6). There were nine RCTs with statistically significant results (seven SLE, two LN), and the mean FI score was 10.2 (SD 6.2). The lowest FI was for the ILLUMINATE-2 trial (FI=2), and the highest FI was for the BLISS-52 trial (FI=17).Twelve studies had non-statistically significant results (10 SLE, two LN) with a mean RFI score of 15.6 (SD 6.1). The lowest RFI was for the ILLUMINATE-1 trial (RFI=4), and the highest RFI was for the TULIP-1 trial (RFI=27). The lowest FQ scores were found in the ILLUMINATE trials and the highest in the Rituximab trials (EXPLORER and LUNAR), meaning that the last ones were the most robust results after accounting for sample size.Conclusions The evidence of therapies for patients with SLE and LN is derived mostly from fragile RCTs. Clinicians and trialists must be aware of the fragility of these RCTs for clinical decision-making and designing trials for novel therapeutics.
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spelling doaj-art-e5a90622aabc4a89a780995e3fa026e22024-11-10T06:55:07ZengBMJ Publishing GroupLupus Science and Medicine2053-87902024-05-0111110.1136/lupus-2023-001068Fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapiesAli Duarte-García0Gabriel Figueroa-Parra1Cynthia S Crowson2Michael S Putman3Division of Rheumatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USADivision of Rheumatology, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA1 Mayo Clinic, Rochester, NY, USADivision of Rheumatology, Medical College of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USAObjective We aimed to evaluate the robustness of phase III randomised controlled trials (RCTs) for SLE and lupus nephritis (LN) using the fragility index (FI), the reverse FI (RFI) and the fragility quotient (FQ).Methods We searched for phase III RCTs that included patients with active SLE or LN. Data on primary endpoints, total participants and the number of events for each arm were obtained. We calculated the FI score for RCTs with statistically significant results (number of patients required to change from event to non-event to make the study lose statistical significance), the RFI for RCTs without statistically significant results (number of patients required to change from non-event to event to make study gain statistical significance) and the FQ score for both (FI or RFI score divided by the sample size).Results We evaluated 20 RCTs (16 SLE, four LN). The mean FI/RFI score was 13.6 (SD 6.6). There were nine RCTs with statistically significant results (seven SLE, two LN), and the mean FI score was 10.2 (SD 6.2). The lowest FI was for the ILLUMINATE-2 trial (FI=2), and the highest FI was for the BLISS-52 trial (FI=17).Twelve studies had non-statistically significant results (10 SLE, two LN) with a mean RFI score of 15.6 (SD 6.1). The lowest RFI was for the ILLUMINATE-1 trial (RFI=4), and the highest RFI was for the TULIP-1 trial (RFI=27). The lowest FQ scores were found in the ILLUMINATE trials and the highest in the Rituximab trials (EXPLORER and LUNAR), meaning that the last ones were the most robust results after accounting for sample size.Conclusions The evidence of therapies for patients with SLE and LN is derived mostly from fragile RCTs. Clinicians and trialists must be aware of the fragility of these RCTs for clinical decision-making and designing trials for novel therapeutics.https://lupus.bmj.com/content/11/1/e001068.full
spellingShingle Ali Duarte-García
Gabriel Figueroa-Parra
Cynthia S Crowson
Michael S Putman
Fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapies
Lupus Science and Medicine
title Fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapies
title_full Fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapies
title_fullStr Fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapies
title_full_unstemmed Fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapies
title_short Fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapies
title_sort fragility of randomised controlled trials for systemic lupus erythematosus and lupus nephritis therapies
url https://lupus.bmj.com/content/11/1/e001068.full
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