Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030
Territorial spatial resource changes play an irreplaceable role in the human development process, providing the necessary dependency conditions and ecosystem services for human production and life. This article takes Jilin Province, China, as the study area, analyzes the characteristics of the dynam...
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| Language: | English |
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De Gruyter
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Open Geosciences |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0680 |
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| author | Shi Dan Liu Xuan Jin Jing Wan Daiji Chen Baolong Liu Jiping |
| author_facet | Shi Dan Liu Xuan Jin Jing Wan Daiji Chen Baolong Liu Jiping |
| author_sort | Shi Dan |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Territorial spatial resource changes play an irreplaceable role in the human development process, providing the necessary dependency conditions and ecosystem services for human production and life. This article takes Jilin Province, China, as the study area, analyzes the characteristics of the dynamic evolution of territorial spatial in Jilin Province from 1985 to 2020, and simulates the spatial and temporal changes of land space in Jilin Province under three different scenarios in 2030. The results show that: (1) From 1985 to 2020, the productive space (PS) and living space (LS) show a gradual increase trend; the ecological space (ES) shows a decrease trend. The LS is scattered except in the Changbai Mountain area; the PS is mainly concentrated in the west and expands year by year; the ES is mainly in the east, and its scope shrinks year by year. (2) From 1985 to 2020, the center of gravity of PS changes more slowly and moves northward as a whole. The change of the center of gravity of LS is mainly concentrated in Changchun, and its center of gravity is shifting southward. The center of gravity of ES moves more sharply, first to the northwest and then gradually to the southeast. (3) Under the natural development scenario in 2030, the territorial spatial area fluctuation is mainly in the north of Songyuan City, central Jilin City, and the north of Changchun City. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area dynamics of Changchun City, Songyuan City, and the northwestern part of Baicheng City change significantly. Under the economic development scenario, the hotspot areas of spatial area change are mainly in the western part of Jilin Province. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-e566faff6ef5409d9b7d9e5d0dbf08be |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2391-5447 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | De Gruyter |
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| series | Open Geosciences |
| spelling | doaj-art-e566faff6ef5409d9b7d9e5d0dbf08be2025-01-07T07:55:45ZengDe GruyterOpen Geosciences2391-54472024-12-0116153710.1515/geo-2022-0680Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030Shi Dan0Liu Xuan1Jin Jing2Wan Daiji3Chen Baolong4Liu Jiping5College of GeoScience and Tourism, Jilin Normal University, Siping, 136000, ChinaCollege of GeoScience and Tourism, Jilin Normal University, Siping, 136000, ChinaCollege of GeoScience and Tourism, Jilin Normal University, Siping, 136000, ChinaCollege of GeoScience and Tourism, Jilin Normal University, Siping, 136000, ChinaCollege of GeoScience and Tourism, Jilin Normal University, Siping, 136000, ChinaCollege of GeoScience and Tourism, Jilin Normal University, Siping, 136000, ChinaTerritorial spatial resource changes play an irreplaceable role in the human development process, providing the necessary dependency conditions and ecosystem services for human production and life. This article takes Jilin Province, China, as the study area, analyzes the characteristics of the dynamic evolution of territorial spatial in Jilin Province from 1985 to 2020, and simulates the spatial and temporal changes of land space in Jilin Province under three different scenarios in 2030. The results show that: (1) From 1985 to 2020, the productive space (PS) and living space (LS) show a gradual increase trend; the ecological space (ES) shows a decrease trend. The LS is scattered except in the Changbai Mountain area; the PS is mainly concentrated in the west and expands year by year; the ES is mainly in the east, and its scope shrinks year by year. (2) From 1985 to 2020, the center of gravity of PS changes more slowly and moves northward as a whole. The change of the center of gravity of LS is mainly concentrated in Changchun, and its center of gravity is shifting southward. The center of gravity of ES moves more sharply, first to the northwest and then gradually to the southeast. (3) Under the natural development scenario in 2030, the territorial spatial area fluctuation is mainly in the north of Songyuan City, central Jilin City, and the north of Changchun City. Under the ecological protection scenario, the area dynamics of Changchun City, Songyuan City, and the northwestern part of Baicheng City change significantly. Under the economic development scenario, the hotspot areas of spatial area change are mainly in the western part of Jilin Province.https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0680territorial spatialmulti-scenario forecastingfuture land - use simulation (flus) modelhotspot analysisjilin province |
| spellingShingle | Shi Dan Liu Xuan Jin Jing Wan Daiji Chen Baolong Liu Jiping Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030 Open Geosciences territorial spatial multi-scenario forecasting future land - use simulation (flus) model hotspot analysis jilin province |
| title | Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030 |
| title_full | Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030 |
| title_fullStr | Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030 |
| title_short | Multi-scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes: A case study of Jilin Province in China from 1985 to 2030 |
| title_sort | multi scenario territorial spatial simulation and dynamic changes a case study of jilin province in china from 1985 to 2030 |
| topic | territorial spatial multi-scenario forecasting future land - use simulation (flus) model hotspot analysis jilin province |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1515/geo-2022-0680 |
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