Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)

The time fluctuations of forest fires occurring in Basilicata, a region situated in Southern Italy, between 2004 and 2023 were investigated using various analytical approaches. Analysis revealed a clustering of fire occurrences over time, as indicated by a significantly high coefficient of variation...

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Main Authors: Luciano Telesca, Rosa Lasaponara
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-07-01
Series:Applied Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/14/7974
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author Luciano Telesca
Rosa Lasaponara
author_facet Luciano Telesca
Rosa Lasaponara
author_sort Luciano Telesca
collection DOAJ
description The time fluctuations of forest fires occurring in Basilicata, a region situated in Southern Italy, between 2004 and 2023 were investigated using various analytical approaches. Analysis revealed a clustering of fire occurrences over time, as indicated by a significantly high coefficient of variation. This suggests that the fire sequence does not follow a Poisson distribution and instead exhibits a clustered structure, largely driven by the heightened frequency of events during the summer seasons. The analysis of monthly forest fire occurrences and total burned area indicates a significant correlation between the two. This correlation is reinforced by shared patterns, notably an annual cycle that appears to be influenced by meteorological factors, aligning with the yearly fluctuations in the region’s weather conditions typical of a Mediterranean climate. Furthermore, the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and forest fires revealed that the accumulation period of the SPEI corresponds to the cycle length of the fires: longer cycles in fire occurrences align with higher accumulation periods in SPEI data.
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spelling doaj-art-e3e6f1de0a7c46f8a2e2daa9b19ce0ac2025-08-20T03:13:41ZengMDPI AGApplied Sciences2076-34172025-07-011514797410.3390/app15147974Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)Luciano Telesca0Rosa Lasaponara1Institute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, 85050 Tito, ItalyInstitute of Methodologies for Environmental Analysis, National Research Council, 85050 Tito, ItalyThe time fluctuations of forest fires occurring in Basilicata, a region situated in Southern Italy, between 2004 and 2023 were investigated using various analytical approaches. Analysis revealed a clustering of fire occurrences over time, as indicated by a significantly high coefficient of variation. This suggests that the fire sequence does not follow a Poisson distribution and instead exhibits a clustered structure, largely driven by the heightened frequency of events during the summer seasons. The analysis of monthly forest fire occurrences and total burned area indicates a significant correlation between the two. This correlation is reinforced by shared patterns, notably an annual cycle that appears to be influenced by meteorological factors, aligning with the yearly fluctuations in the region’s weather conditions typical of a Mediterranean climate. Furthermore, the relationship between the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and forest fires revealed that the accumulation period of the SPEI corresponds to the cycle length of the fires: longer cycles in fire occurrences align with higher accumulation periods in SPEI data.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/14/7974firesSPEIstatistical methods
spellingShingle Luciano Telesca
Rosa Lasaponara
Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)
Applied Sciences
fires
SPEI
statistical methods
title Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)
title_full Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)
title_fullStr Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)
title_full_unstemmed Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)
title_short Integrated Investigation of the Time Dynamics of Forest Fire Sequences in Basilicata Region (Southern Italy)
title_sort integrated investigation of the time dynamics of forest fire sequences in basilicata region southern italy
topic fires
SPEI
statistical methods
url https://www.mdpi.com/2076-3417/15/14/7974
work_keys_str_mv AT lucianotelesca integratedinvestigationofthetimedynamicsofforestfiresequencesinbasilicataregionsouthernitaly
AT rosalasaponara integratedinvestigationofthetimedynamicsofforestfiresequencesinbasilicataregionsouthernitaly